Verified market performance

Performance you can inspect, not just a number you have to trust.

Quantalis compares published forecast ranges with stored market candles. This public view shows verified results, qualified performance, forecast horizons and direct forecast-to-market comparisons.

Statistics period: ALL Last calculated: 15 Aug 2026, 01:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL
Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 1,473 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.

Verified performance overview

Only ranges that have a completed market outcome are included in verified hit-rate calculations.

Forecast Hit Rate
53.09%
8,016 evaluated forecast ranges
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
71.77%
3,596 qualified evaluated ranges
Published TouchRate
63.42%
Average model-published confidence/touch estimate
Median Time to Touch
20m 51
Median time from range validity to first verified touch
Evaluated Ranges
8,016
Completed touched + not touched observations
Pending
0
Open ranges are excluded until their horizon expires

Performance by forecast horizon

Forecast Hit Rate, Qualified Forecast Hit Rate and the model-published TouchRate shown side by side for each prediction horizon.

30 min 2,672 evaluated
Forecast Hit 37.24%
Qualified Hit 62.58%
Published TouchRate 53.03%
60 min 2,672 evaluated
Forecast Hit 51.65%
Qualified Hit 68.90%
Published TouchRate 64.69%
90 min 2,672 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.40%
Qualified Hit 78.51%
Published TouchRate 72.54%

Recent performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Forecast-to-market verification

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

OKX BTC/USD

2026-08-14 19:15:00 → 2026-08-15 01:15:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
#3079
2026-08-15 00:05:58 		OKX
BTC 		30 min 62,872.0200 → 62,872.2200 86.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,872.0200
#3079
2026-08-15 00:05:58 		OKX
BTC 		60 min 62,832.2400 → 62,832.3300 76.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,832.3300
#3079
2026-08-15 00:05:58 		OKX
BTC 		90 min 62,870.0200 → 62,870.1400 96.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,870.0200
#3078
2026-08-15 00:02:58 		OKX
BTC 		30 min 62,882.9600 → 62,883.1600 64.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,882.9600
#3078
2026-08-15 00:02:58 		OKX
BTC 		60 min 62,822.7400 → 62,822.8400 73.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:15:00
@ 62,822.8400
#3078
2026-08-15 00:02:58 		OKX
BTC 		90 min 62,858.0400 → 62,858.1600 50.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,858.1000
#3077
2026-08-14 23:59:57 		OKX
BTC 		30 min 62,898.6800 → 62,898.8800 46.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:08:00
@ 62,898.6800
#3077
2026-08-14 23:59:57 		OKX
BTC 		60 min 62,835.7700 → 62,835.8700 82.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,835.8700
#3077
2026-08-14 23:59:57 		OKX
BTC 		90 min 62,858.6400 → 62,858.7600 50.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,858.7000
#3076
2026-08-14 23:56:56 		OKX
BTC 		30 min 62,871.2800 → 62,871.4800 60.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,871.2800
#3076
2026-08-14 23:56:56 		OKX
BTC 		60 min 62,824.0800 → 62,824.1800 85.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:15:00
@ 62,824.1800
#3076
2026-08-14 23:56:56 		OKX
BTC 		90 min 62,827.2900 → 62,827.4200 92.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:15:00
@ 62,827.4200
#3075
2026-08-14 23:53:55 		OKX
BTC 		30 min 62,894.4000 → 62,894.6000 54.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:56:00
@ 62,894.4000
#3075
2026-08-14 23:53:55 		OKX
BTC 		60 min 62,861.7500 → 62,861.8500 50.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,861.8000
#3075
2026-08-14 23:53:55 		OKX
BTC 		90 min 62,861.7400 → 62,861.8600 50.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,861.8000
#3074
2026-08-14 23:50:55 		OKX
BTC 		30 min 62,892.1800 → 62,892.3800 54.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:52:00
@ 62,892.1800
#3074
2026-08-14 23:50:55 		OKX
BTC 		60 min 62,845.3600 → 62,845.4500 89.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,845.4500
#3074
2026-08-14 23:50:55 		OKX
BTC 		90 min 62,859.0400 → 62,859.1600 50.00% touched 2026-08-15 00:11:00
@ 62,859.1000

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.

© 2021 SALAZAR & Co. d.o.o. All rights reserved.