Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 03:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.87%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,370 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.48%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,370
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.30% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 31 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-01 21:53:00 → 2026-10-02 03:53:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 459 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.50%
Published TouchRate 60.87%
Qualified Hit 85.45%
Published TouchRate 83.17%
60 min 456 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.63%
Published TouchRate 72.55%
Qualified Hit 80.59%
Published TouchRate 84.23%
90 min 455 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.51%
Published TouchRate 74.55%
Qualified Hit 82.56%
Published TouchRate 86.91%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790905786923-131939
2026-10-02 03:49:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,646.2700 → 84,646.3200 87.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:49:00
@ 84,646.2700
1790905067340-129789
2026-10-02 03:37:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,573.2600 → 84,573.3100 60.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:39:00
@ 84,573.3100
1790905067340-129789
2026-10-02 03:37:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,558.6700 → 84,558.7600 67.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:42:00
@ 84,558.7600
1790903987038-126525
2026-10-02 03:19:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,518.1100 → 84,518.1600 23.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:21:00
@ 84,518.1600
1790903987038-126525
2026-10-02 03:19:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,540.5100 → 84,540.6400 68.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:21:00
@ 84,540.6400
1790903807388-125988
2026-10-02 03:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,561.3800 → 84,561.4300 42.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:20:00
@ 84,561.4300
1790903807388-125988
2026-10-02 03:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,557.5100 → 84,557.6300 69.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:20:00
@ 84,557.6300
1790903627384-125463
2026-10-02 03:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,530.4200 → 84,530.4600 16.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:21:00
@ 84,530.4600
1790903627384-125463
2026-10-02 03:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,501.9700 → 84,502.0700 25.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:21:00
@ 84,502.0700
1790903627384-125463
2026-10-02 03:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,564.1400 → 84,564.2600 66.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:20:00
@ 84,564.2600
1790903447101-124908
2026-10-02 03:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,581.0300 → 84,581.0800 26.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:20:00
@ 84,581.0800
1790903447101-124908
2026-10-02 03:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,586.0500 → 84,586.1500 49.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:20:00
@ 84,586.1500
1790903447101-124908
2026-10-02 03:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,617.5200 → 84,617.6400 76.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:15:00
@ 84,617.6400
1790903266882-124371
2026-10-02 03:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,669.9400 → 84,669.9900 80.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:10:00
@ 84,669.9900
1790903266882-124371
2026-10-02 03:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,622.3500 → 84,622.4500 58.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:15:00
@ 84,622.4500
1790903266882-124371
2026-10-02 03:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,656.9500 → 84,657.0700 85.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:11:00
@ 84,657.0700
1790903087557-123829
2026-10-02 03:04:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,721.5400 → 84,721.5800 50.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:04:00
@ 84,721.5600
1790903087557-123829
2026-10-02 03:04:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,706.3500 → 84,706.4500 90.00% touched 2026-10-02 03:06:00
@ 84,706.4500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 37 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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