Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 04:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790906687250-134695

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790906687250-134695
Published 2026-10-02 04:04:34
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,934.3900
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
41.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-02 04:05:00
Market price 85,043.0300.
Actual Market Range
84,821.2000 → 85,096.1500
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790906687250-134695.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,043.0300 → 85,045.7500 22.00% 2026-10-02 04:04:34
→ 2026-10-02 04:34:34 		touched 2026-10-02 04:05:00
@ 85,043.0300
60 min 85,051.3900 → 85,051.4900 41.00% 2026-10-02 04:04:34
→ 2026-10-02 05:04:34 		touched 2026-10-02 04:08:00
@ 85,051.3900
90 min 85,031.9000 → 85,032.0300 62.00% 2026-10-02 04:04:34
→ 2026-10-02 05:34:34 		touched 2026-10-02 04:05:00
@ 85,031.9000
Historical context at publication time 70.67% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,164 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.03% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 04:04:34 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.72%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,366 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.84%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,366
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.77% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 35 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-01 22:47:00 → 2026-10-02 04:47:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 464 evaluated
Forecast Hit 68.97%
Published TouchRate 60.40%
Qualified Hit 85.45%
Published TouchRate 83.38%
60 min 452 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.77%
Published TouchRate 71.76%
Qualified Hit 80.38%
Published TouchRate 84.04%
90 min 450 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.56%
Published TouchRate 74.39%
Qualified Hit 83.64%
Published TouchRate 86.86%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790909207859-142439
2026-10-02 04:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,957.7300 → 84,957.7800 88.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:46:00
@ 84,957.7800
1790908847462-141357
2026-10-02 04:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,957.0000 → 84,957.1300 64.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:44:00
@ 84,957.0000
1790908668114-140838
2026-10-02 04:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,892.9500 → 84,893.0100 74.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:38:00
@ 84,893.0100
1790908487542-140296
2026-10-02 04:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,872.6300 → 84,872.6800 83.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:39:00
@ 84,872.6800
1790908487542-140296
2026-10-02 04:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,974.1400 → 84,974.2700 68.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:45:00
@ 84,974.1400
1790908307417-139580
2026-10-02 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,844.5200 → 84,844.5700 82.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:32:00
@ 84,844.5700
1790908307417-139580
2026-10-02 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,928.3700 → 84,928.5000 75.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:34:00
@ 84,928.3700
1790908127287-139020
2026-10-02 04:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,895.6300 → 84,895.6800 92.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:28:00
@ 84,895.6300
1790908127287-139020
2026-10-02 04:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,939.9800 → 84,940.1000 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:34:00
@ 84,939.9800
1790907947659-138489
2026-10-02 04:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,917.8900 → 84,917.9400 66.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:26:00
@ 84,917.8900
1790907947659-138489
2026-10-02 04:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,920.5900 → 84,920.7200 79.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:26:00
@ 84,920.5900
1790907767344-137929
2026-10-02 04:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,889.8700 → 84,889.9200 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:22:00
@ 84,889.8700
1790907767344-137929
2026-10-02 04:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,926.8300 → 84,926.9600 79.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:26:00
@ 84,926.8300
1790907408145-136858
2026-10-02 04:16:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,104.8700 → 85,110.4100 31.00% not touched —
1790907227516-136311
2026-10-02 04:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,159.1000 → 85,159.1400 28.00% not touched —
1790907047466-135774
2026-10-02 04:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,199.1700 → 85,199.2300 26.00% not touched —
1790906867409-135241
2026-10-02 04:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,069.4900 → 85,069.5500 24.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:09:00
@ 85,069.4900
1790906867409-135241
2026-10-02 04:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,073.6800 → 85,073.8100 56.00% touched 2026-10-02 04:09:00
@ 85,073.6800

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 37 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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