Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 03 Oct 2026, 08:30 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790916948057-165796

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790916948057-165796
Published 2026-10-02 06:55:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,653.7800
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
77.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
No verified touch was recorded.
Actual Market Range
85,859.0600 → 86,668.9500
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790916948057-165796.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,699.3100 → 86,699.3600 86.00% 2026-10-02 06:55:35
→ 2026-10-02 07:25:35 		not touched —
60 min 86,800.7300 → 86,800.8300 76.00% 2026-10-02 06:55:35
→ 2026-10-02 07:55:35 		not touched —
90 min 86,942.7200 → 86,942.8400 69.00% 2026-10-02 06:55:35
→ 2026-10-02 08:25:35 		not touched —
Historical context at publication time 70.71% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,346 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.97% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 06:55:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
76.68%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,398 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
79.42%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,398
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 74.44% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 36 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-03 02:33:00 → 2026-10-03 08:33:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.05%
Published TouchRate 66.61%
Qualified Hit 78.30%
Published TouchRate 85.00%
60 min 467 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.09%
Published TouchRate 77.06%
Qualified Hit 81.07%
Published TouchRate 84.50%
90 min 456 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.04%
Published TouchRate 79.92%
Qualified Hit 78.49%
Published TouchRate 85.81%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791008928462-571074
2026-10-03 08:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,637.6000 → 84,637.6500 83.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:28:00
@ 84,637.6000
1791008928462-571074
2026-10-03 08:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,648.6800 → 84,648.7700 76.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:28:00
@ 84,648.6800
1791008748542-570157
2026-10-03 08:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,642.7900 → 84,642.8900 80.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:26:00
@ 84,642.7900
1791008748542-570157
2026-10-03 08:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,652.4800 → 84,652.6100 67.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:26:00
@ 84,652.4800
1791008568117-569230
2026-10-03 08:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,640.9800 → 84,641.0800 82.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:22:00
@ 84,640.9800
1791008568117-569230
2026-10-03 08:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,651.0600 → 84,651.1900 69.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:26:00
@ 84,651.0600
1791008389091-568329
2026-10-03 08:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,637.0100 → 84,637.0700 50.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:19:00
@ 84,637.0400
1791008208752-567418
2026-10-03 08:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,617.9900 → 84,618.0500 50.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:16:00
@ 84,618.0200
1791008208752-567418
2026-10-03 08:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,647.2000 → 84,647.3300 66.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:26:00
@ 84,647.2000
1791008028422-566528
2026-10-03 08:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,622.0200 → 84,622.0800 50.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:13:00
@ 84,622.0500
1791007848448-565345
2026-10-03 08:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,642.9500 → 84,643.0000 86.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:11:00
@ 84,642.9500
1791007668814-564441
2026-10-03 08:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,639.8400 → 84,639.8900 87.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:08:00
@ 84,639.8400
1791007489125-563535
2026-10-03 08:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,659.7000 → 84,660.7000 81.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:09:00
@ 84,659.7000
1791007310068-562626
2026-10-03 08:01:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,676.9700 → 84,677.0200 68.00% not touched —
1791007128514-561686
2026-10-03 07:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,643.4500 → 84,643.4900 80.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:00:00
@ 84,643.4500
1791007128514-561686
2026-10-03 07:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,666.3200 → 84,666.4200 65.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:01:00
@ 84,666.3200
1791006950509-560784
2026-10-03 07:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,665.9100 → 84,665.9600 62.00% touched 2026-10-03 08:01:00
@ 84,665.9100
1791006770154-559876
2026-10-03 07:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,645.7600 → 84,645.8100 62.00% touched 2026-10-03 07:54:00
@ 84,645.7600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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