Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 18:30 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790953669872-280703

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790953669872-280703
Published 2026-10-02 17:07:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,384.0100
Run Hit Rate
50.00%
1 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
61.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-02 17:54:00
Market price 85,237.0600.
Actual Market Range
85,108.0000 → 85,680.9400
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790953669872-280703.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,273.9800 → 85,274.0400 56.00% 2026-10-02 17:07:35
→ 2026-10-02 17:37:35 		not touched —
60 min 85,236.9600 → 85,237.0600 71.00% 2026-10-02 17:07:35
→ 2026-10-02 18:07:35 		touched 2026-10-02 17:54:00
@ 85,237.0600
90 min 85,094.9500 → 85,095.0700 58.00% 2026-10-02 17:07:35
→ 2026-10-02 18:37:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 70.74% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,958 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.05% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 17:07:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
74.96%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,406 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
76.53%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,406
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 71.12% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 25 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 12:32:00 → 2026-10-02 18:32:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.32%
Published TouchRate 65.79%
Qualified Hit 84.34%
Published TouchRate 84.41%
60 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.74%
Published TouchRate 73.44%
Qualified Hit 73.15%
Published TouchRate 84.41%
90 min 460 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.87%
Published TouchRate 74.27%
Qualified Hit 74.65%
Published TouchRate 86.10%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790958528707-304834
2026-10-02 18:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,166.7100 → 85,170.4700 87.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:29:00
@ 85,170.4700
1790958348289-303815
2026-10-02 18:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,175.7500 → 85,181.8700 97.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:25:00
@ 85,181.8700
1790957988590-302047
2026-10-02 18:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,276.9700 → 85,279.7100 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:19:00
@ 85,279.7100
1790957988590-302047
2026-10-02 18:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,165.6500 → 85,165.7500 78.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:23:00
@ 85,165.7500
1790957808369-301141
2026-10-02 18:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,181.2100 → 85,186.4900 80.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:23:00
@ 85,186.4900
1790957629392-300265
2026-10-02 18:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,122.9600 → 85,123.0100 62.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:13:00
@ 85,123.0100
1790957449665-299337
2026-10-02 18:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,165.0800 → 85,165.6800 70.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:11:00
@ 85,165.6800
1790957270101-298438
2026-10-02 18:07:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,253.9700 → 85,254.0200 79.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:08:00
@ 85,254.0200
1790957270101-298438
2026-10-02 18:07:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,283.6000 → 85,283.7000 96.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:07:00
@ 85,283.7000
1790957088778-297395
2026-10-02 18:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,397.7300 → 85,407.7100 91.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:04:00
@ 85,407.7100
1790957088778-297395
2026-10-02 18:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,316.1500 → 85,316.2500 82.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:06:00
@ 85,316.2500
1790957088778-297395
2026-10-02 18:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,264.0800 → 85,264.2100 85.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:07:00
@ 85,264.2100
1790956909679-296405
2026-10-02 18:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,369.2000 → 85,372.0600 85.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:01:00
@ 85,372.0600
1790956909679-296405
2026-10-02 18:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,260.5900 → 85,260.6900 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:07:00
@ 85,260.6900
1790956909679-296405
2026-10-02 18:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,118.5800 → 85,118.7000 73.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:11:00
@ 85,118.7000
1790956729070-295448
2026-10-02 17:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,151.2800 → 85,156.2600 58.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:11:00
@ 85,156.2600
1790956729070-295448
2026-10-02 17:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,116.7200 → 85,116.8200 76.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:24:00
@ 85,116.8200
1790956549704-294540
2026-10-02 17:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,094.7400 → 85,114.0000 62.00% touched 2026-10-02 18:24:00
@ 85,114.0000

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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