Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 19:40 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790959068515-307758

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790959068515-307758
Published 2026-10-02 18:37:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,152.4100
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
75.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-02 18:42:00
Market price 85,042.4300.
Actual Market Range
84,500.0000 → 85,299.0300
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790959068515-307758.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,042.3900 → 85,042.4300 58.00% 2026-10-02 18:37:35
→ 2026-10-02 19:07:35 		touched 2026-10-02 18:42:00
@ 85,042.4300
60 min 85,005.3600 → 85,005.4600 77.00% 2026-10-02 18:37:35
→ 2026-10-02 19:37:35 		touched 2026-10-02 18:42:00
@ 85,005.4600
90 min 85,046.2100 → 85,046.3400 90.00% 2026-10-02 18:37:35
→ 2026-10-02 20:07:35 		touched 2026-10-02 18:42:00
@ 85,046.3400
Historical context at publication time 70.79% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 54,048 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.05% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 18:37:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
75.56%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,420 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
77.76%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,420
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 71.73% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 14 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 13:42:00 → 2026-10-02 19:42:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.89%
Published TouchRate 66.10%
Qualified Hit 84.16%
Published TouchRate 84.34%
60 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.31%
Published TouchRate 73.93%
Qualified Hit 74.84%
Published TouchRate 84.01%
90 min 472 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.69%
Published TouchRate 75.23%
Qualified Hit 76.90%
Published TouchRate 85.49%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790962668976-326583
2026-10-02 19:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,537.5200 → 84,537.6200 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:39:00
@ 84,537.6200
1790962490434-325419
2026-10-02 19:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,639.2800 → 84,641.2000 60.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:38:00
@ 84,641.2000
1790962490434-325419
2026-10-02 19:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,603.1900 → 84,603.2900 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:39:00
@ 84,603.2900
1790962308831-324467
2026-10-02 19:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,532.6800 → 84,532.7800 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:39:00
@ 84,532.7800
1790962128691-323443
2026-10-02 19:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,561.9800 → 84,562.0400 59.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:30:00
@ 84,562.0400
1790962128691-323443
2026-10-02 19:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,524.9600 → 84,525.0600 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:39:00
@ 84,525.0600
1790961947911-322552
2026-10-02 19:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,516.9200 → 84,517.0200 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:39:00
@ 84,517.0200
1790961768740-321695
2026-10-02 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,855.3700 → 84,858.2300 59.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:23:00
@ 84,858.2300
1790961768740-321695
2026-10-02 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,839.3100 → 84,839.4100 80.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:23:00
@ 84,839.4100
1790961768740-321695
2026-10-02 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,779.8900 → 84,780.0100 83.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:24:00
@ 84,780.0100
1790961588943-320693
2026-10-02 19:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,833.6300 → 84,836.5300 59.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:24:00
@ 84,836.5300
1790961588943-320693
2026-10-02 19:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,798.0300 → 84,798.1300 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:24:00
@ 84,798.1300
1790961588943-320693
2026-10-02 19:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,748.2700 → 84,748.4000 82.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:24:00
@ 84,748.4000
1790961408176-319815
2026-10-02 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,664.6500 → 84,664.7000 58.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:24:00
@ 84,664.7000
1790961408176-319815
2026-10-02 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,627.6300 → 84,627.7300 77.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:25:00
@ 84,627.7300
1790961408176-319815
2026-10-02 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,539.0600 → 84,539.1900 79.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:39:00
@ 84,539.1900
1790961228065-318843
2026-10-02 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,007.6400 → 85,007.6800 81.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:13:00
@ 85,007.6800
1790961228065-318843
2026-10-02 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,940.2800 → 84,940.3800 82.00% touched 2026-10-02 19:14:00
@ 84,940.3800

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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