Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 04 Oct 2026, 15:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791015048011-602083

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791015048011-602083
Published 2026-10-03 10:10:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,627.7900
Run Hit Rate
66.67%
2 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
69.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-03 10:10:00
Market price 84,627.7900.
Actual Market Range
84,549.8900 → 84,654.1600
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791015048011-602083.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 84,627.7600 → 84,627.8200 50.00% 2026-10-03 10:10:35
→ 2026-10-03 10:40:35 		touched 2026-10-03 10:10:00
@ 84,627.7900
60 min 84,655.1100 → 84,655.2100 68.00% 2026-10-03 10:10:35
→ 2026-10-03 11:10:35 		not touched —
90 min 84,619.7800 → 84,619.9100 91.00% 2026-10-03 10:10:35
→ 2026-10-03 11:40:35 		touched 2026-10-03 10:15:00
@ 84,619.9100
Historical context at publication time 70.82% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 54,978 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.12% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-03 10:10:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.30%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,390 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.74%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,390
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 61.39% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 29 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-04 09:18:00 → 2026-10-04 15:18:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 464 evaluated
Forecast Hit 66.16%
Published TouchRate 50.14%
Qualified Hit 82.44%
Published TouchRate 79.63%
60 min 464 evaluated
Forecast Hit 68.97%
Published TouchRate 62.87%
Qualified Hit 78.50%
Published TouchRate 83.17%
90 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 81.82%
Published TouchRate 71.20%
Qualified Hit 88.52%
Published TouchRate 84.92%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791118548779-1127795
2026-10-04 14:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,078.1300 → 85,078.2500 71.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:55:00
@ 85,078.2500
1791118368231-1126889
2026-10-04 14:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,082.9800 → 85,083.0800 52.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:55:00
@ 85,083.0800
1791118368231-1126889
2026-10-04 14:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,097.5700 → 85,097.7000 74.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:54:00
@ 85,097.7000
1791118187689-1125997
2026-10-04 14:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,089.9900 → 85,090.0500 35.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:55:00
@ 85,090.0500
1791118187689-1125997
2026-10-04 14:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,092.9900 → 85,093.0800 61.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:54:00
@ 85,093.0800
1791118187689-1125997
2026-10-04 14:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,094.8600 → 85,094.9900 75.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:54:00
@ 85,094.9900
1791118008543-1125068
2026-10-04 14:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,129.2700 → 85,129.3200 53.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:54:00
@ 85,129.3200
1791118008543-1125068
2026-10-04 14:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,100.3700 → 85,100.4600 52.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:54:00
@ 85,100.4600
1791118008543-1125068
2026-10-04 14:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,109.5100 → 85,109.6300 72.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:54:00
@ 85,109.6300
1791117828654-1124159
2026-10-04 14:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,196.1700 → 85,196.2200 54.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:44:00
@ 85,196.2200
1791117828654-1124159
2026-10-04 14:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,210.9600 → 85,211.0600 83.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:44:00
@ 85,211.0600
1791117828654-1124159
2026-10-04 14:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,222.3800 → 85,222.5100 94.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:44:00
@ 85,222.5100
1791117648235-1123249
2026-10-04 14:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,161.0000 → 85,161.0500 20.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:46:00
@ 85,161.0500
1791117648235-1123249
2026-10-04 14:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,221.1000 → 85,221.2000 87.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:44:00
@ 85,221.2000
1791117648235-1123249
2026-10-04 14:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,231.2500 → 85,231.3800 96.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:44:00
@ 85,231.3800
1791117468742-1122348
2026-10-04 14:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,176.2000 → 85,176.2500 26.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:46:00
@ 85,176.2500
1791117468742-1122348
2026-10-04 14:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,214.2500 → 85,214.3500 77.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:44:00
@ 85,214.3500
1791117468742-1122348
2026-10-04 14:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,244.9700 → 85,245.0900 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 14:37:00
@ 85,245.0300

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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