Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 03 Oct 2026, 21:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791053570020-797773

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791053570020-797773
Published 2026-10-03 20:52:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,918.2800
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
75.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-03 21:01:00
Market price 84,906.3200.
Actual Market Range
84,679.8900 → 84,953.1900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791053570020-797773.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 84,899.5600 → 84,899.6100 63.00% 2026-10-03 20:52:35
→ 2026-10-03 21:22:35 		touched 2026-10-03 21:02:00
@ 84,899.6100
60 min 84,895.9300 → 84,896.0300 74.00% 2026-10-03 20:52:35
→ 2026-10-03 21:52:35 		touched 2026-10-03 21:03:00
@ 84,896.0300
90 min 84,906.2000 → 84,906.3200 90.00% 2026-10-03 20:52:35
→ 2026-10-03 22:22:35 		touched 2026-10-03 21:01:00
@ 84,906.3200
Historical context at publication time 70.84% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 55,613 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.03% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-03 20:52:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.20%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,418 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
80.58%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,418
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 66.00% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 13 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-03 15:51:00 → 2026-10-03 21:51:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 67.30%
Published TouchRate 56.79%
Qualified Hit 75.15%
Published TouchRate 83.22%
60 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.27%
Published TouchRate 66.97%
Qualified Hit 81.53%
Published TouchRate 84.47%
90 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.22%
Published TouchRate 74.45%
Qualified Hit 82.74%
Published TouchRate 86.04%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791056809117-814268
2026-10-03 21:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,701.7600 → 84,701.8100 10.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,701.8100
1791056629015-813361
2026-10-03 21:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,752.4000 → 84,752.4500 36.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,752.4500
1791056629015-813361
2026-10-03 21:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,717.5500 → 84,717.6400 37.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,717.6400
1791056629015-813361
2026-10-03 21:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,701.4500 → 84,701.5800 45.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,701.5800
1791056447995-812450
2026-10-03 21:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,727.9900 → 84,729.3500 25.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,729.3500
1791056447995-812450
2026-10-03 21:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,696.5700 → 84,696.6700 33.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,696.6700
1791056268577-811540
2026-10-03 21:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,732.8600 → 84,732.9100 23.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,732.9100
1791056268577-811540
2026-10-03 21:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,690.7200 → 84,690.8200 26.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,690.8200
1791056089620-810628
2026-10-03 21:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,760.7300 → 84,760.7900 38.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:44:00
@ 84,760.7900
1791056089620-810628
2026-10-03 21:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,711.2500 → 84,711.3500 28.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,711.3500
1791056089620-810628
2026-10-03 21:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,715.9500 → 84,716.0800 45.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,716.0800
1791055909028-809730
2026-10-03 21:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,758.4000 → 84,758.4500 13.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:44:00
@ 84,758.4500
1791055909028-809730
2026-10-03 21:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,748.4700 → 84,748.5600 37.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,748.5600
1791055909028-809730
2026-10-03 21:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,744.3600 → 84,744.4900 48.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:47:00
@ 84,744.4900
1791055729896-808833
2026-10-03 21:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,775.1600 → 84,775.2100 12.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:36:00
@ 84,775.2100
1791055729896-808833
2026-10-03 21:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,758.6600 → 84,758.7600 30.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:44:00
@ 84,758.7600
1791055729896-808833
2026-10-03 21:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,765.7700 → 84,765.9000 48.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:44:00
@ 84,765.9000
1791055549346-807923
2026-10-03 21:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,775.9400 → 84,775.9900 16.00% touched 2026-10-03 21:36:00
@ 84,775.9900

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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