Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 04 Oct 2026, 02:25 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791070308554-882768

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791070308554-882768
Published 2026-10-04 01:31:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,738.1500
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
80.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-04 01:34:00
Market price 84,751.8700.
Actual Market Range
84,700.6900 → 84,864.8900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791070308554-882768.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 84,713.0900 → 84,713.1400 65.00% 2026-10-04 01:31:35
→ 2026-10-04 02:01:35 		touched 2026-10-04 01:54:00
@ 84,713.1400
60 min 84,717.8700 → 84,717.9600 85.00% 2026-10-04 01:31:35
→ 2026-10-04 02:31:35 		touched 2026-10-04 01:54:00
@ 84,717.9600
90 min 84,751.8700 → 84,752.0000 92.00% 2026-10-04 01:31:35
→ 2026-10-04 03:01:35 		touched 2026-10-04 01:34:00
@ 84,751.8700
Historical context at publication time 70.81% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 55,899 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.98% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-04 01:31:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.03%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,423 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
85.19%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,423
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 62.32% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 11 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-03 20:27:00 → 2026-10-04 02:27:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 68.00%
Published TouchRate 52.68%
Qualified Hit 84.56%
Published TouchRate 80.79%
60 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.56%
Published TouchRate 62.97%
Qualified Hit 84.76%
Published TouchRate 82.43%
90 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 78.53%
Published TouchRate 71.31%
Qualified Hit 85.82%
Published TouchRate 83.96%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791073188210-897415
2026-10-04 02:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,853.1200 → 84,853.2500 88.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:20:00
@ 84,853.1200
1791073007998-896484
2026-10-04 02:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,825.9900 → 84,826.0500 70.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:18:00
@ 84,825.9900
1791073007998-896484
2026-10-04 02:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,844.4000 → 84,844.5000 70.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:20:00
@ 84,844.4000
1791073007998-896484
2026-10-04 02:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,816.6300 → 84,816.7600 93.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:17:00
@ 84,816.6300
1791072827714-895591
2026-10-04 02:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,818.2600 → 84,818.3100 78.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:17:00
@ 84,818.2600
1791072827714-895591
2026-10-04 02:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,833.5100 → 84,833.6100 77.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:18:00
@ 84,833.5100
1791072827714-895591
2026-10-04 02:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,812.8800 → 84,813.0100 94.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:16:00
@ 84,812.8800
1791072647843-894658
2026-10-04 02:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,800.6700 → 84,800.7200 85.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:12:00
@ 84,800.6700
1791072647843-894658
2026-10-04 02:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,811.8400 → 84,811.9300 84.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:12:00
@ 84,811.8400
1791072647843-894658
2026-10-04 02:10:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,790.2500 → 84,790.3700 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:10:00
@ 84,790.3100
1791072467250-893737
2026-10-04 02:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,828.4600 → 84,829.5400 68.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:18:00
@ 84,828.4600
1791072467250-893737
2026-10-04 02:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,840.0100 → 84,840.1100 76.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:20:00
@ 84,840.0100
1791072467250-893737
2026-10-04 02:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,818.6300 → 84,818.7600 93.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:07:00
@ 84,818.6300
1791072108632-891892
2026-10-04 02:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,775.9000 → 84,775.9500 74.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:02:00
@ 84,775.9000
1791072108632-891892
2026-10-04 02:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,751.4500 → 84,751.5500 95.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:01:00
@ 84,751.5500
1791072108632-891892
2026-10-04 02:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,758.1400 → 84,758.2600 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 02:01:00
@ 84,758.2000
1791071928134-890977
2026-10-04 01:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,743.4000 → 84,744.5600 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 01:58:00
@ 84,743.9800
1791071928134-890977
2026-10-04 01:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,737.0400 → 84,737.1600 96.00% touched 2026-10-04 01:58:00
@ 84,737.1600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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