Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 05 Oct 2026, 07:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791086148015-963224

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791086148015-963224
Published 2026-10-04 05:55:34
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,834.0900
Run Hit Rate
66.67%
2 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
67.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-04 06:00:00
Market price 84,834.0900.
Actual Market Range
84,797.3000 → 84,871.1600
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791086148015-963224.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 84,840.1800 → 84,840.2300 84.00% 2026-10-04 05:55:34
→ 2026-10-04 06:25:34 		touched 2026-10-04 06:03:00
@ 84,840.1800
60 min 84,855.0700 → 84,855.1600 68.00% 2026-10-04 05:55:34
→ 2026-10-04 06:55:34 		not touched —
90 min 84,834.0300 → 84,834.1500 50.00% 2026-10-04 05:55:34
→ 2026-10-04 07:25:34 		touched 2026-10-04 06:00:00
@ 84,834.0900
Historical context at publication time 70.84% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 56,145 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.98% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-04 05:55:34 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
77.20%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,399 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
85.09%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,399
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 60.09% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 32 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-05 01:15:00 → 2026-10-05 07:15:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.00%
Published TouchRate 50.10%
Qualified Hit 90.00%
Published TouchRate 82.10%
60 min 466 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.47%
Published TouchRate 61.70%
Qualified Hit 83.33%
Published TouchRate 82.57%
90 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 85.28%
Published TouchRate 68.66%
Qualified Hit 84.02%
Published TouchRate 84.79%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791176867361-1424010
2026-10-05 07:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,512.7700 → 85,512.8200 84.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:08:00
@ 85,512.8200
1791175967913-1419458
2026-10-05 06:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,466.7800 → 85,466.8300 56.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,466.8300
1791175787708-1418532
2026-10-05 06:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,500.8200 → 85,500.8600 46.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:54:00
@ 85,500.8600
1791175787708-1418532
2026-10-05 06:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,463.7900 → 85,463.8900 65.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,463.8900
1791175608240-1417602
2026-10-05 06:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,505.0900 → 85,505.1300 46.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:54:00
@ 85,505.1300
1791175608240-1417602
2026-10-05 06:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,468.0600 → 85,468.1600 65.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,468.1600
1791175429388-1416703
2026-10-05 06:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,462.2600 → 85,462.3200 46.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,462.3200
1791175248627-1415802
2026-10-05 06:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,408.9200 → 85,408.9600 45.00% not touched —
1791175068395-1414923
2026-10-05 06:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,504.5500 → 85,504.6100 45.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:41:00
@ 85,504.6100
1791175068395-1414923
2026-10-05 06:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,467.5300 → 85,467.6300 62.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,467.6300
1791174888507-1414017
2026-10-05 06:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,462.4800 → 85,462.5400 43.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,462.5400
1791174707937-1413107
2026-10-05 06:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,617.5100 → 85,617.5500 42.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:32:00
@ 85,617.5500
1791174707937-1413107
2026-10-05 06:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,580.4800 → 85,580.5800 60.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:32:00
@ 85,580.5800
1791174707937-1413107
2026-10-05 06:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,438.4700 → 85,438.5900 46.00% touched 2026-10-05 07:02:00
@ 85,438.5900
1791174528548-1412206
2026-10-05 06:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,687.7000 → 85,687.7400 42.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:31:00
@ 85,687.7400
1791174528548-1412206
2026-10-05 06:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,650.6700 → 85,650.7700 59.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:32:00
@ 85,650.7700
1791174528548-1412206
2026-10-05 06:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,508.6600 → 85,508.7800 44.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:32:00
@ 85,508.7800
1791174348838-1411317
2026-10-05 06:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,790.3000 → 85,790.3600 41.00% touched 2026-10-05 06:28:00
@ 85,790.3600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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