Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 05 Oct 2026, 12:20 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791104867580-1058420

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791104867580-1058420
Published 2026-10-04 11:07:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,094.9100
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
66.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-04 11:07:00
Market price 85,084.2200.
Actual Market Range
85,069.0900 → 85,422.8600
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791104867580-1058420.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,127.8300 → 85,127.8800 50.00% 2026-10-04 11:07:35
→ 2026-10-04 11:37:35 		touched 2026-10-04 11:15:00
@ 85,127.8300
60 min 85,084.1200 → 85,084.2200 90.00% 2026-10-04 11:07:35
→ 2026-10-04 12:07:35 		touched 2026-10-04 11:07:00
@ 85,084.2200
90 min 85,165.0600 → 85,165.1900 59.00% 2026-10-04 11:07:35
→ 2026-10-04 12:37:35 		touched 2026-10-04 11:22:00
@ 85,165.0600
Historical context at publication time 70.87% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 56,457 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.89% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-04 11:07:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
75.31%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,389 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.84%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,389
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 65.16% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 42 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-05 06:21:00 → 2026-10-05 12:21:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 472 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.09%
Published TouchRate 55.84%
Qualified Hit 92.20%
Published TouchRate 82.60%
60 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.27%
Published TouchRate 67.93%
Qualified Hit 84.58%
Published TouchRate 81.82%
90 min 455 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.60%
Published TouchRate 72.02%
Qualified Hit 78.91%
Published TouchRate 84.91%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791195229879-1516529
2026-10-05 12:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,048.4500 → 86,048.5000 73.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:17:00
@ 86,048.4500
1791195229879-1516529
2026-10-05 12:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,019.6700 → 86,019.7600 95.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:14:00
@ 86,019.6700
1791195048952-1515634
2026-10-05 12:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,062.1000 → 86,062.2000 98.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:10:00
@ 86,062.1000
1791194870072-1514714
2026-10-05 12:07:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,031.9400 → 86,032.0400 50.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:07:00
@ 86,031.9900
1791194688860-1513823
2026-10-05 12:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,968.6500 → 85,968.7500 88.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:13:00
@ 85,968.7500
1791194509832-1512903
2026-10-05 12:01:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,990.3800 → 85,990.4300 80.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:02:00
@ 85,990.3800
1791194328087-1511978
2026-10-05 11:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,995.0100 → 85,995.0600 76.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:02:00
@ 85,995.0100
1791194149071-1511051
2026-10-05 11:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,042.2700 → 86,042.3200 72.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:03:00
@ 86,042.2700
1791193788478-1509259
2026-10-05 11:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,029.7700 → 86,029.8200 68.00% touched 2026-10-05 12:03:00
@ 86,029.7700
1791193607702-1508327
2026-10-05 11:46:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,943.2700 → 85,943.3200 81.00% touched 2026-10-05 11:46:00
@ 85,943.2700
1791193429376-1507416
2026-10-05 11:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,886.0600 → 85,886.1100 87.00% touched 2026-10-05 11:43:00
@ 85,886.1100
1791193248967-1506559
2026-10-05 11:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,873.0400 → 85,873.0900 72.00% not touched —
1791193068623-1505649
2026-10-05 11:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,764.0100 → 85,764.0700 51.00% not touched —
1791192888111-1504729
2026-10-05 11:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,727.6400 → 85,727.6800 51.00% not touched —
1791192708474-1503844
2026-10-05 11:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,780.2600 → 85,780.3000 51.00% not touched —
1791192528696-1502951
2026-10-05 11:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,759.7600 → 85,759.8200 52.00% not touched —
1791192348260-1502071
2026-10-05 11:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,776.3400 → 85,776.3800 51.00% not touched —
1791192168095-1501146
2026-10-05 11:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,768.8000 → 85,768.8500 51.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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