Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 04 Oct 2026, 15:45 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791119988226-1135090

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791119988226-1135090
Published 2026-10-04 15:19:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,175.3300
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
1 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
79.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-04 15:24:00
Market price 85,190.1500.
Actual Market Range
85,150.0000 → 85,316.9400
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791119988226-1135090.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,190.1500 → 85,190.2100 82.00% 2026-10-04 15:19:35
→ 2026-10-04 15:49:35 		touched 2026-10-04 15:24:00
@ 85,190.1500
60 min 85,136.0100 → 85,136.1100 73.00% 2026-10-04 15:19:35
→ 2026-10-04 16:19:35 		pending —
90 min 85,141.6700 → 85,141.8000 84.00% 2026-10-04 15:19:35
→ 2026-10-04 16:49:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 70.87% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 56,696 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.85% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-04 15:19:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.68%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,391 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.87%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,391
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 61.39% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 31 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-04 09:48:00 → 2026-10-04 15:48:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 469 evaluated
Forecast Hit 66.31%
Published TouchRate 50.06%
Qualified Hit 82.71%
Published TouchRate 79.62%
60 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.48%
Published TouchRate 62.71%
Qualified Hit 79.15%
Published TouchRate 83.34%
90 min 460 evaluated
Forecast Hit 82.39%
Published TouchRate 71.63%
Qualified Hit 88.04%
Published TouchRate 84.97%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791121428271-1142378
2026-10-04 15:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,225.9400 → 85,226.0400 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:43:00
@ 85,225.9900
1791121248179-1141469
2026-10-04 15:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,233.9100 → 85,234.0100 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:40:00
@ 85,233.9600
1791121068543-1140569
2026-10-04 15:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,276.7600 → 85,276.8100 46.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:37:00
@ 85,276.7600
1791121068543-1140569
2026-10-04 15:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,229.4900 → 85,229.5900 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:40:00
@ 85,229.5400
1791120887953-1139670
2026-10-04 15:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,234.1200 → 85,234.2100 91.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:35:00
@ 85,234.2100
1791120887953-1139670
2026-10-04 15:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,210.3700 → 85,210.5000 83.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:36:00
@ 85,210.5000
1791120709286-1138744
2026-10-04 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,223.1500 → 85,223.2500 82.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:35:00
@ 85,223.2500
1791120709286-1138744
2026-10-04 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,211.7800 → 85,211.9000 83.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:36:00
@ 85,211.9000
1791120527669-1137829
2026-10-04 15:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,247.2600 → 85,247.3100 50.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:31:00
@ 85,247.2600
1791120348170-1136923
2026-10-04 15:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,231.7400 → 85,231.7900 59.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:28:00
@ 85,231.7400
1791120168651-1136003
2026-10-04 15:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,202.0800 → 85,202.1300 77.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:26:00
@ 85,202.0800
1791119988226-1135090
2026-10-04 15:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,190.1500 → 85,190.2100 82.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:24:00
@ 85,190.1500
1791119809432-1134186
2026-10-04 15:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,218.7000 → 85,218.7500 68.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:26:00
@ 85,218.7000
1791119809432-1134186
2026-10-04 15:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,180.9100 → 85,181.0100 92.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:16:00
@ 85,181.0100
1791119809432-1134186
2026-10-04 15:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,156.6300 → 85,156.7600 83.00% touched 2026-10-04 15:19:00
@ 85,156.7600
1791119628371-1133282
2026-10-04 15:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,091.2000 → 85,091.2500 41.00% not touched —
1791119448436-1132369
2026-10-04 15:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,056.5800 → 85,056.6300 29.00% not touched —
1791119268595-1131466
2026-10-04 15:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,094.1900 → 85,094.2400 43.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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