Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 06 Oct 2026, 02:20 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791154367563-1309872

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791154367563-1309872
Published 2026-10-05 00:52:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,333.7900
Run Hit Rate
66.67%
2 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
53.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-05 01:04:00
Market price 86,480.7400.
Actual Market Range
86,285.4300 → 86,792.8100
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791154367563-1309872.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,223.6300 → 86,223.9500 42.00% 2026-10-05 00:52:35
→ 2026-10-05 01:22:35 		not touched —
60 min 86,480.7400 → 86,480.8400 60.00% 2026-10-05 00:52:35
→ 2026-10-05 01:52:35 		touched 2026-10-05 01:04:00
@ 86,480.7400
90 min 86,584.1300 → 86,584.2600 58.00% 2026-10-05 00:52:35
→ 2026-10-05 02:22:35 		touched 2026-10-05 01:12:00
@ 86,584.1300
Historical context at publication time 70.94% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 57,282 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.76% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-05 00:52:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
75.80%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,409 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.70%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,409
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 72.17% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 25 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-05 20:18:00 → 2026-10-06 02:18:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.38%
Published TouchRate 63.93%
Qualified Hit 88.27%
Published TouchRate 84.21%
60 min 469 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.61%
Published TouchRate 74.77%
Qualified Hit 83.39%
Published TouchRate 82.02%
90 min 467 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.38%
Published TouchRate 77.90%
Qualified Hit 76.50%
Published TouchRate 85.56%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791245808042-1771600
2026-10-06 02:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,883.5600 → 85,883.6600 94.00% touched 2026-10-06 02:16:00
@ 85,883.5600
1791245627961-1770694
2026-10-06 02:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,868.3600 → 85,868.4000 73.00% touched 2026-10-06 02:15:00
@ 85,868.3600
1791245448711-1769787
2026-10-06 02:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,857.7000 → 85,857.7400 50.00% touched 2026-10-06 02:10:00
@ 85,857.7200
1791245448711-1769787
2026-10-06 02:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,816.6800 → 85,816.8100 83.00% touched 2026-10-06 02:14:00
@ 85,816.8100
1791245088213-1767953
2026-10-06 02:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,793.1900 → 85,793.2400 78.00% touched 2026-10-06 02:04:00
@ 85,793.2400
1791244547809-1765193
2026-10-06 01:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,755.9800 → 85,756.0300 28.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:59:00
@ 85,756.0300
1791244547809-1765193
2026-10-06 01:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,805.6000 → 85,805.7000 83.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:56:00
@ 85,805.7000
1791244547809-1765193
2026-10-06 01:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,789.1000 → 85,789.2300 83.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:57:00
@ 85,789.2300
1791244008128-1762467
2026-10-06 01:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,717.5900 → 85,717.6400 49.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:47:00
@ 85,717.6400
1791243827918-1761579
2026-10-06 01:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,748.7300 → 85,748.7900 37.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:47:00
@ 85,748.7900
1791243827918-1761579
2026-10-06 01:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,752.8800 → 85,752.9800 66.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:45:00
@ 85,752.9800
1791243827918-1761579
2026-10-06 01:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,753.6200 → 85,753.7500 79.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:45:00
@ 85,753.7500
1791243648100-1760649
2026-10-06 01:40:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,756.9600 → 85,757.0100 17.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:45:00
@ 85,757.0100
1791243648100-1760649
2026-10-06 01:40:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,813.4800 → 85,813.5800 76.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:43:00
@ 85,813.5800
1791243648100-1760649
2026-10-06 01:40:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,837.2200 → 85,837.3500 93.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:41:00
@ 85,837.3500
1791243467845-1759751
2026-10-06 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,736.8400 → 85,736.8900 12.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:47:00
@ 85,736.8900
1791243467845-1759751
2026-10-06 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,805.9400 → 85,806.0400 78.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:45:00
@ 85,806.0400
1791243467845-1759751
2026-10-06 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,814.4600 → 85,814.5900 89.00% touched 2026-10-06 01:43:00
@ 85,814.5900

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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