Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 05 Oct 2026, 14:10 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791200268277-1541982

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791200268277-1541982
Published 2026-10-05 13:37:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,121.8800
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
80.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-05 13:41:00
Market price 86,141.7400.
Actual Market Range
86,003.1600 → 86,225.9600
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791200268277-1541982.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,204.8200 → 86,204.8700 51.00% 2026-10-05 13:37:35
→ 2026-10-05 14:07:35 		touched 2026-10-05 13:58:00
@ 86,204.8200
60 min 86,141.7400 → 86,141.8300 94.00% 2026-10-05 13:37:35
→ 2026-10-05 14:37:35 		touched 2026-10-05 13:41:00
@ 86,141.7400
90 min 86,149.1000 → 86,149.2300 95.00% 2026-10-05 13:37:35
→ 2026-10-05 15:07:35 		touched 2026-10-05 13:58:00
@ 86,149.1000
Historical context at publication time 70.97% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 58,032 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.79% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-05 13:37:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
75.76%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,411 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.61%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,411
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 66.20% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 20 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-05 08:12:00 → 2026-10-05 14:12:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.63%
Published TouchRate 57.04%
Qualified Hit 93.15%
Published TouchRate 83.17%
60 min 464 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.51%
Published TouchRate 68.72%
Qualified Hit 82.80%
Published TouchRate 81.73%
90 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.16%
Published TouchRate 72.96%
Qualified Hit 77.21%
Published TouchRate 85.14%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791202068406-1551065
2026-10-05 14:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,119.9800 → 86,120.0200 50.00% touched 2026-10-05 14:07:00
@ 86,120.0000
1791201890083-1550165
2026-10-05 14:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,141.1900 → 86,141.2400 96.00% touched 2026-10-05 14:04:00
@ 86,141.1900
1791201890083-1550165
2026-10-05 14:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,135.5200 → 86,135.6400 50.00% touched 2026-10-05 14:04:00
@ 86,135.5800
1791201709258-1549273
2026-10-05 14:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,153.4600 → 86,153.5100 91.00% touched 2026-10-05 14:01:00
@ 86,153.5100
1791201348210-1547401
2026-10-05 13:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,083.4800 → 86,083.5300 86.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:56:00
@ 86,083.4800
1791201348210-1547401
2026-10-05 13:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,044.6000 → 86,044.7300 96.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:55:00
@ 86,044.7300
1791201168904-1546497
2026-10-05 13:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,033.3200 → 86,033.3700 91.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:52:00
@ 86,033.3200
1791200987898-1545589
2026-10-05 13:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,087.6400 → 86,087.6900 78.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:56:00
@ 86,087.6400
1791200987898-1545589
2026-10-05 13:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,030.3700 → 86,030.4600 93.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:51:00
@ 86,030.4600
1791200987898-1545589
2026-10-05 13:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,052.7800 → 86,052.9000 50.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:49:00
@ 86,052.8400
1791200808511-1544678
2026-10-05 13:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,082.3900 → 86,082.4400 65.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:56:00
@ 86,082.3900
1791200808511-1544678
2026-10-05 13:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,006.1800 → 86,006.2800 94.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:51:00
@ 86,006.2800
1791200808511-1544678
2026-10-05 13:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,024.9400 → 86,025.0600 50.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:46:00
@ 86,025.0000
1791200628063-1543778
2026-10-05 13:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,197.5200 → 86,197.5800 39.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:58:00
@ 86,197.5200
1791200628063-1543778
2026-10-05 13:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,143.0700 → 86,143.1600 84.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:57:00
@ 86,143.0700
1791200628063-1543778
2026-10-05 13:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,138.9400 → 86,139.0700 89.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:57:00
@ 86,138.9400
1791200448541-1542886
2026-10-05 13:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,177.9100 → 86,177.9600 49.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:58:00
@ 86,177.9100
1791200448541-1542886
2026-10-05 13:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,100.4500 → 86,100.5500 97.00% touched 2026-10-05 13:41:00
@ 86,100.4500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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