Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 05 Oct 2026, 19:30 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791218628273-1634234

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791218628273-1634234
Published 2026-10-05 18:43:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,171.2400
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
82.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
One or more horizons are still pending.
Actual Market Range
85,145.9700 → 85,382.3400
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791218628273-1634234.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,119.0600 → 85,119.1100 81.00% 2026-10-05 18:43:35
→ 2026-10-05 19:13:35 		not touched —
60 min 85,099.5700 → 85,099.6700 86.00% 2026-10-05 18:43:35
→ 2026-10-05 19:43:35 		pending —
90 min 85,008.2800 → 85,008.4100 80.00% 2026-10-05 18:43:35
→ 2026-10-05 20:13:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.00% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 58,338 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.78% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-05 18:43:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
76.04%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,398 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
80.53%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,398
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.10% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 30 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-05 13:33:00 → 2026-10-05 19:33:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.38%
Published TouchRate 59.70%
Qualified Hit 91.14%
Published TouchRate 83.95%
60 min 467 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.73%
Published TouchRate 70.70%
Qualified Hit 79.78%
Published TouchRate 81.43%
90 min 458 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.93%
Published TouchRate 71.08%
Qualified Hit 74.81%
Published TouchRate 85.64%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791221148085-1647004
2026-10-05 19:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,378.7000 → 85,378.8300 97.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:30:00
@ 85,378.7000
1791220968308-1646077
2026-10-05 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,314.3000 → 85,314.3500 97.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:23:00
@ 85,314.3000
1791220968308-1646077
2026-10-05 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,320.1400 → 85,320.2700 98.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:23:00
@ 85,320.1400
1791220788398-1645172
2026-10-05 19:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,351.8500 → 85,351.9800 98.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:24:00
@ 85,351.8500
1791220607908-1644258
2026-10-05 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,366.0500 → 85,368.0300 77.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:26:00
@ 85,366.0500
1791220607908-1644258
2026-10-05 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,373.5800 → 85,373.6800 86.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:28:00
@ 85,373.5800
1791220429158-1643358
2026-10-05 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,251.4400 → 85,251.4900 91.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:14:00
@ 85,251.4400
1791220249016-1642446
2026-10-05 19:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,205.3700 → 85,205.4200 96.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:12:00
@ 85,205.4200
1791220249016-1642446
2026-10-05 19:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,204.1500 → 85,204.2700 99.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:12:00
@ 85,204.2700
1791220068301-1641547
2026-10-05 19:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,283.9900 → 85,284.0500 95.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:15:00
@ 85,283.9900
1791220068301-1641547
2026-10-05 19:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,282.3500 → 85,282.4400 98.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:15:00
@ 85,282.3500
1791220068301-1641547
2026-10-05 19:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,235.5700 → 85,235.7000 96.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:09:00
@ 85,235.7000
1791219888668-1640652
2026-10-05 19:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,240.1100 → 85,240.1600 96.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:04:00
@ 85,240.1100
1791219888668-1640652
2026-10-05 19:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,238.6200 → 85,238.7100 98.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:04:00
@ 85,238.6200
1791219888668-1640652
2026-10-05 19:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,228.8700 → 85,228.9900 50.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:04:00
@ 85,228.9300
1791219708771-1639742
2026-10-05 19:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,325.2000 → 85,325.9600 83.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:17:00
@ 85,325.2000
1791219708771-1639742
2026-10-05 19:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,297.1000 → 85,297.2000 96.00% touched 2026-10-05 19:15:00
@ 85,297.1000
1791219527988-1638776
2026-10-05 18:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,423.2500 → 85,424.5700 62.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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