Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

Clear
Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 06 Oct 2026, 19:00 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791302688698-2059089

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791302688698-2059089
Published 2026-10-06 18:04:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,711.7000
Run Hit Rate
66.67%
2 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
51.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-06 18:36:00
Market price 85,564.7500.
Actual Market Range
85,542.7800 → 85,851.1100
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791302688698-2059089.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,601.6700 → 85,601.7300 51.00% 2026-10-06 18:04:35
→ 2026-10-06 18:34:35 		not touched —
60 min 85,564.6500 → 85,564.7500 53.00% 2026-10-06 18:04:35
→ 2026-10-06 19:04:35 		touched 2026-10-06 18:36:00
@ 85,564.7500
90 min 85,546.7000 → 85,546.8300 50.00% 2026-10-06 18:04:35
→ 2026-10-06 19:34:35 		touched 2026-10-06 18:36:00
@ 85,546.8300
Historical context at publication time 71.10% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 59,743 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.78% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-06 18:04:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
76.55%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,407 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
87.34%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,407
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.56% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 30 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-06 13:00:00 → 2026-10-06 19:00:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.53%
Published TouchRate 58.16%
Qualified Hit 89.71%
Published TouchRate 84.16%
60 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 79.19%
Published TouchRate 70.77%
Qualified Hit 90.04%
Published TouchRate 84.21%
90 min 460 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.96%
Published TouchRate 77.07%
Qualified Hit 83.93%
Published TouchRate 85.39%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791305748727-2074390
2026-10-06 18:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,602.1900 → 85,602.2400 80.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:57:00
@ 85,602.2400
1791305568912-2073525
2026-10-06 18:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,699.1400 → 85,699.2000 50.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:52:00
@ 85,699.1700
1791305568912-2073525
2026-10-06 18:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,583.3400 → 85,583.4300 74.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:57:00
@ 85,583.4300
1791305388222-2072607
2026-10-06 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,581.2600 → 85,581.3100 71.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:57:00
@ 85,581.3100
1791305209278-2071684
2026-10-06 18:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,708.5800 → 85,708.6300 98.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:46:00
@ 85,708.6300
1791305029084-2070779
2026-10-06 18:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,601.9800 → 85,602.0400 77.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:57:00
@ 85,602.0400
1791304488578-2068080
2026-10-06 18:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,579.2100 → 85,579.2600 69.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:36:00
@ 85,579.2600
1791304309569-2067190
2026-10-06 18:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,729.4500 → 85,729.5000 96.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:31:00
@ 85,729.5000
1791304309569-2067190
2026-10-06 18:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,591.6900 → 85,591.7900 64.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:35:00
@ 85,591.7900
1791304129117-2066295
2026-10-06 18:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,723.1600 → 85,723.2100 89.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:29:00
@ 85,723.2100
1791304129117-2066295
2026-10-06 18:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,600.3800 → 85,600.4800 64.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:35:00
@ 85,600.4800
1791303949855-2065407
2026-10-06 18:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,625.8400 → 85,625.8800 56.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:34:00
@ 85,625.8800
1791303949855-2065407
2026-10-06 18:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,583.2100 → 85,583.3100 64.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:36:00
@ 85,583.3100
1791303769758-2064480
2026-10-06 18:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,591.8200 → 85,591.8600 54.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:35:00
@ 85,591.8600
1791303769758-2064480
2026-10-06 18:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,554.7900 → 85,554.8900 63.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:36:00
@ 85,554.8900
1791303589266-2063610
2026-10-06 18:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,643.8900 → 85,643.9300 54.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:21:00
@ 85,643.9300
1791303589266-2063610
2026-10-06 18:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,606.8600 → 85,606.9600 62.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:35:00
@ 85,606.9600
1791303409878-2062697
2026-10-06 18:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,600.0400 → 85,600.0800 53.00% touched 2026-10-06 18:35:00
@ 85,600.0800

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
Explore Quantalis

Turn verified statistics into a live market view.

Review available markets and plans, or start with Quantalis when you are ready to receive live analytical outputs.

See markets & pricing Get Started

© 2026 SALAZAR & Co. d.o.o. All rights reserved.