Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 07 Oct 2026, 21:35 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791307369120-2082503

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791307369120-2082503
Published 2026-10-06 19:22:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,475.5300
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
65.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
No verified touch was recorded.
Actual Market Range
85,467.5900 → 85,816.8700
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791307369120-2082503.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,365.5100 → 85,365.5500 54.00% 2026-10-06 19:22:35
→ 2026-10-06 19:52:35 		not touched —
60 min 85,352.1500 → 85,352.2500 72.00% 2026-10-06 19:22:35
→ 2026-10-06 20:22:35 		not touched —
90 min 85,281.6200 → 85,281.7500 71.00% 2026-10-06 19:22:35
→ 2026-10-06 20:52:35 		not touched —
Historical context at publication time 71.08% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 59,823 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.77% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-06 19:22:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
77.29%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,409 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
76.26%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,409
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.25% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 28 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-07 15:33:00 → 2026-10-07 21:33:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.58%
Published TouchRate 61.66%
Qualified Hit 76.50%
Published TouchRate 83.76%
60 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.85%
Published TouchRate 71.32%
Qualified Hit 75.19%
Published TouchRate 87.37%
90 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.49%
Published TouchRate 75.00%
Qualified Hit 77.05%
Published TouchRate 87.51%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791401328387-2558326
2026-10-07 21:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,437.6800 → 83,437.7400 85.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:28:00
@ 83,437.6800
1791401148445-2557417
2026-10-07 21:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,478.5300 → 83,478.5800 79.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:26:00
@ 83,478.5300
1791400968352-2556511
2026-10-07 21:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,415.7000 → 83,415.7400 50.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:22:00
@ 83,415.7200
1791400608033-2554702
2026-10-07 21:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,389.2100 → 83,389.2600 85.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:17:00
@ 83,389.2100
1791400608033-2554702
2026-10-07 21:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,374.5500 → 83,374.6500 96.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:17:00
@ 83,374.5500
1791400428411-2553803
2026-10-07 21:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,373.9600 → 83,374.0100 84.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:17:00
@ 83,373.9600
1791400428411-2553803
2026-10-07 21:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,343.8000 → 83,343.9000 50.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:13:00
@ 83,343.8500
1791400248879-2552894
2026-10-07 21:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,402.8500 → 83,402.9000 69.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:18:00
@ 83,402.8500
1791400248879-2552894
2026-10-07 21:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,373.9600 → 83,374.0600 91.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:17:00
@ 83,373.9600
1791400248879-2552894
2026-10-07 21:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,424.2700 → 83,424.4000 85.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:18:00
@ 83,424.2700
1791400068196-2551966
2026-10-07 21:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,345.2900 → 83,345.3500 88.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:08:00
@ 83,345.2900
1791400068196-2551966
2026-10-07 21:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,306.5800 → 83,306.6800 96.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:08:00
@ 83,306.6800
1791400068196-2551966
2026-10-07 21:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,391.4900 → 83,391.6200 87.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:17:00
@ 83,391.4900
1791399888518-2551059
2026-10-07 21:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,412.9900 → 83,413.0400 70.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:18:00
@ 83,412.9900
1791399888518-2551059
2026-10-07 21:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,384.6400 → 83,384.7400 92.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:05:00
@ 83,384.6400
1791399888518-2551059
2026-10-07 21:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,421.1000 → 83,421.2300 88.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:18:00
@ 83,421.1000
1791399708361-2550148
2026-10-07 21:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,518.7700 → 83,518.8200 53.00% not touched —
1791399528035-2549214
2026-10-07 20:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,425.4500 → 83,425.5000 73.00% touched 2026-10-07 21:01:00
@ 83,425.4500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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