Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 06 Oct 2026, 20:25 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791309709407-2094308

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791309709407-2094308
Published 2026-10-06 20:01:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 85,784.3900
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
1 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
77.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-06 20:03:00
Market price 85,789.4200.
Actual Market Range
85,629.9600 → 85,816.8700
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791309709407-2094308.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 85,894.3700 → 85,894.4100 54.00% 2026-10-06 20:01:35
→ 2026-10-06 20:31:35 		pending —
60 min 85,878.1300 → 85,878.2300 79.00% 2026-10-06 20:01:35
→ 2026-10-06 21:01:35 		pending —
90 min 85,789.4200 → 85,789.5400 99.00% 2026-10-06 20:01:35
→ 2026-10-06 21:31:35 		touched 2026-10-06 20:03:00
@ 85,789.4200
Historical context at publication time 71.10% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 59,842 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.78% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-06 20:01:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
74.89%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,390 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
86.18%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,390
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.49% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 44 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-06 14:27:00 → 2026-10-06 20:27:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.98%
Published TouchRate 57.45%
Qualified Hit 90.91%
Published TouchRate 83.93%
60 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.63%
Published TouchRate 70.10%
Qualified Hit 87.21%
Published TouchRate 83.80%
90 min 455 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.07%
Published TouchRate 75.19%
Qualified Hit 82.86%
Published TouchRate 85.00%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791310969603-2100608
2026-10-06 20:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,640.3400 → 85,640.3800 91.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:24:00
@ 85,640.3800
1791310969603-2100608
2026-10-06 20:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,639.0100 → 85,639.1400 97.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:24:00
@ 85,639.1400
1791309709407-2094308
2026-10-06 20:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,789.4200 → 85,789.5400 99.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:03:00
@ 85,789.4200
1791309528405-2093378
2026-10-06 19:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,701.1300 → 85,701.1800 92.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:59:00
@ 85,701.1300
1791309528405-2093378
2026-10-06 19:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,742.1100 → 85,742.2100 87.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:00:00
@ 85,742.1100
1791309528405-2093378
2026-10-06 19:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,652.8700 → 85,653.0000 95.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:22:00
@ 85,653.0000
1791309348860-2092478
2026-10-06 19:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,837.4900 → 85,839.6900 56.00% not touched —
1791309348860-2092478
2026-10-06 19:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,776.4800 → 85,776.5800 90.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:00:00
@ 85,776.4800
1791309348860-2092478
2026-10-06 19:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,732.2000 → 85,732.3200 50.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:55:00
@ 85,732.2600
1791309168083-2091572
2026-10-06 19:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,802.8800 → 85,802.9200 54.00% touched 2026-10-06 20:03:00
@ 85,802.8800
1791309168083-2091572
2026-10-06 19:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,685.3000 → 85,685.4000 98.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:52:00
@ 85,685.4000
1791309168083-2091572
2026-10-06 19:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 85,684.8700 → 85,685.0000 99.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:52:00
@ 85,685.0000
1791308987963-2090662
2026-10-06 19:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,577.7800 → 85,577.8300 90.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:50:00
@ 85,577.7800
1791308808746-2089776
2026-10-06 19:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,631.6300 → 85,635.0700 83.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:51:00
@ 85,631.6300
1791308628829-2088851
2026-10-06 19:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,584.8500 → 85,584.9000 87.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:43:00
@ 85,584.8500
1791308448495-2087960
2026-10-06 19:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,556.0300 → 85,556.0800 91.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:41:00
@ 85,556.0800
1791308448495-2087960
2026-10-06 19:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 85,548.3500 → 85,548.4500 94.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:41:00
@ 85,548.4500
1791308268531-2087039
2026-10-06 19:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 85,606.0400 → 85,606.0800 95.00% touched 2026-10-06 19:37:00
@ 85,606.0400

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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