Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 08 Oct 2026, 22:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791397728389-2540151

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791397728389-2540151
Published 2026-10-07 20:28:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 83,290.9000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
77.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-07 20:28:00
Market price 83,263.0700.
Actual Market Range
83,236.4900 → 83,481.8700
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791397728389-2540151.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 83,385.7300 → 83,385.7800 52.00% 2026-10-07 20:28:35
→ 2026-10-07 20:58:35 		touched 2026-10-07 20:51:00
@ 83,385.7300
60 min 83,347.9400 → 83,348.0400 85.00% 2026-10-07 20:28:35
→ 2026-10-07 21:28:35 		touched 2026-10-07 20:50:00
@ 83,347.9400
90 min 83,262.9400 → 83,263.0700 95.00% 2026-10-07 20:28:35
→ 2026-10-07 21:58:35 		touched 2026-10-07 20:28:00
@ 83,263.0700
Historical context at publication time 71.17% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 61,329 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.80% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-07 20:28:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
76.14%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,404 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
85.26%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,404
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.04% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 36 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-08 16:18:00 → 2026-10-08 22:18:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.96%
Published TouchRate 58.76%
Qualified Hit 87.98%
Published TouchRate 80.48%
60 min 466 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.39%
Published TouchRate 71.10%
Qualified Hit 86.49%
Published TouchRate 83.87%
90 min 461 evaluated
Forecast Hit 79.18%
Published TouchRate 74.55%
Qualified Hit 82.70%
Published TouchRate 83.45%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791490069214-3008527
2026-10-08 22:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,808.1100 → 81,808.1600 94.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:09:00
@ 81,808.1100
1791489888478-3007649
2026-10-08 22:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,748.1100 → 81,748.1500 50.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:04:00
@ 81,748.1300
1791489708166-3006686
2026-10-08 22:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,763.3500 → 81,763.3900 50.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:01:00
@ 81,763.3700
1791489527475-3005749
2026-10-08 21:58:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,786.0400 → 81,786.0800 88.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:01:00
@ 81,786.0400
1791489348138-3004703
2026-10-08 21:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,775.3800 → 81,775.4300 85.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:01:00
@ 81,775.3800
1791489168153-3003843
2026-10-08 21:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,796.4200 → 81,796.4700 78.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:02:00
@ 81,796.4200
1791488988552-3002939
2026-10-08 21:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,768.3800 → 81,768.4300 77.00% touched 2026-10-08 21:57:00
@ 81,768.3800
1791488988552-3002939
2026-10-08 21:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,807.2500 → 81,807.3500 85.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:02:00
@ 81,807.2500
1791488808112-3002050
2026-10-08 21:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,764.2800 → 81,764.3300 76.00% touched 2026-10-08 21:56:00
@ 81,764.2800
1791488808112-3002050
2026-10-08 21:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,782.0700 → 81,782.1700 87.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:01:00
@ 81,782.0700
1791488628849-3001147
2026-10-08 21:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,829.0800 → 81,830.9200 75.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:09:00
@ 81,829.0800
1791488447904-3000237
2026-10-08 21:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,815.4500 → 81,815.5100 75.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:09:00
@ 81,815.4500
1791488268794-2999354
2026-10-08 21:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,845.7100 → 81,845.7700 75.00% not touched —
1791488088665-2998470
2026-10-08 21:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,850.9800 → 81,851.0200 75.00% not touched —
1791487909515-2997571
2026-10-08 21:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,812.1500 → 81,819.0300 75.00% not touched —
1791487728427-2996677
2026-10-08 21:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,755.2400 → 81,755.3000 75.00% touched 2026-10-08 21:35:00
@ 81,755.2400
1791487728427-2996677
2026-10-08 21:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,792.2200 → 81,792.3200 84.00% touched 2026-10-08 22:02:00
@ 81,792.2200
1791487548947-2995765
2026-10-08 21:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,709.5900 → 81,709.6400 77.00% touched 2026-10-08 21:31:00
@ 81,709.5900

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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