Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 09 Oct 2026, 01:40 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791499608105-3057254

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791499608105-3057254
Published 2026-10-09 00:46:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,885.5500
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
79.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
One or more horizons are still pending.
Actual Market Range
81,739.1000 → 81,895.2800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791499608105-3057254.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,938.1800 → 81,938.2300 79.00% 2026-10-09 00:46:35
→ 2026-10-09 01:16:35 		not touched —
60 min 82,032.5000 → 82,032.6000 71.00% 2026-10-09 00:46:35
→ 2026-10-09 01:46:35 		pending —
90 min 81,978.4000 → 81,978.5300 88.00% 2026-10-09 00:46:35
→ 2026-10-09 02:16:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.26% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 63,022 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.85% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-09 00:46:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
75.83%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,411 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.04%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,411
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 70.08% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 29 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-08 19:39:00 → 2026-10-09 01:39:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.68%
Published TouchRate 61.80%
Qualified Hit 86.57%
Published TouchRate 81.96%
60 min 469 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.48%
Published TouchRate 72.97%
Qualified Hit 82.04%
Published TouchRate 84.89%
90 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.34%
Published TouchRate 75.66%
Qualified Hit 76.52%
Published TouchRate 84.47%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791502667178-3073563
2026-10-09 01:37:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,770.3500 → 81,770.3900 50.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:37:00
@ 81,770.3700
1791502487973-3072641
2026-10-09 01:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,792.3500 → 81,792.4000 92.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:36:00
@ 81,792.4000
1791502487973-3072641
2026-10-09 01:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,810.9400 → 81,811.0400 50.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:34:00
@ 81,810.9900
1791502307360-3071568
2026-10-09 01:31:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,784.1000 → 81,784.1500 86.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:36:00
@ 81,784.1500
1791502127180-3070660
2026-10-09 01:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,756.5500 → 81,756.6000 94.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:28:00
@ 81,756.6000
1791502127180-3070660
2026-10-09 01:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,770.9800 → 81,771.0800 50.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:28:00
@ 81,771.0300
1791502127180-3070660
2026-10-09 01:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,831.0600 → 81,831.1900 91.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:35:00
@ 81,831.0600
1791501948096-3069731
2026-10-09 01:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,836.0100 → 81,836.0500 92.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:25:00
@ 81,836.0100
1791501767917-3068821
2026-10-09 01:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,832.6100 → 81,832.6600 96.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:22:00
@ 81,832.6100
1791501588155-3067915
2026-10-09 01:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,766.6500 → 81,766.7500 50.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:19:00
@ 81,766.7000
1791501407765-3067002
2026-10-09 01:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,781.2400 → 81,781.3400 50.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:16:00
@ 81,781.2900
1791501227401-3066083
2026-10-09 01:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,780.2900 → 81,780.3900 98.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:13:00
@ 81,780.2900
1791501227401-3066083
2026-10-09 01:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,829.2100 → 81,829.3400 92.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:21:00
@ 81,829.2100
1791501047744-3065173
2026-10-09 01:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,777.8200 → 81,777.8700 91.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:10:00
@ 81,777.8700
1791501047744-3065173
2026-10-09 01:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,830.6400 → 81,830.7400 94.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:21:00
@ 81,830.6400
1791500867383-3064268
2026-10-09 01:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,738.1700 → 81,738.2200 87.00% not touched —
1791500867383-3064268
2026-10-09 01:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,827.0800 → 81,827.1800 88.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:21:00
@ 81,827.0800
1791500867383-3064268
2026-10-09 01:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,822.2400 → 81,822.3600 93.00% touched 2026-10-09 01:21:00
@ 81,822.2400

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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