Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 09 Oct 2026, 04:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791512208455-3121903

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791512208455-3121903
Published 2026-10-09 04:16:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,928.3700
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
55.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-09 04:16:00
Market price 81,953.8300.
Actual Market Range
81,841.0500 → 82,038.5000
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791512208455-3121903.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,953.8300 → 81,953.8800 76.00% 2026-10-09 04:16:35
→ 2026-10-09 04:46:35 		touched 2026-10-09 04:16:00
@ 81,953.8300
60 min 82,075.3200 → 82,075.4200 27.00% 2026-10-09 04:16:35
→ 2026-10-09 05:16:35 		pending —
90 min 82,011.9500 → 82,012.0700 62.00% 2026-10-09 04:16:35
→ 2026-10-09 05:46:35 		touched 2026-10-09 04:47:00
@ 82,011.9500
Historical context at publication time 71.28% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 63,230 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.86% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-09 04:16:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
75.44%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,417 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
78.98%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,417
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 71.40% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 20 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-08 22:48:00 → 2026-10-09 04:48:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.89%
Published TouchRate 63.16%
Qualified Hit 86.84%
Published TouchRate 81.86%
60 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.10%
Published TouchRate 74.70%
Qualified Hit 78.81%
Published TouchRate 84.96%
90 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.31%
Published TouchRate 76.41%
Qualified Hit 73.81%
Published TouchRate 84.79%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791514007910-3131588
2026-10-09 04:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,977.0900 → 81,977.1400 80.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:47:00
@ 81,977.0900
1791514007910-3131588
2026-10-09 04:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,998.7200 → 81,998.8200 78.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:47:00
@ 81,998.7200
1791513830058-3130686
2026-10-09 04:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,954.0500 → 81,954.1000 50.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:43:00
@ 81,954.0700
1791513830058-3130686
2026-10-09 04:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,968.5800 → 81,968.6800 92.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:43:00
@ 81,968.5800
1791513288376-3127968
2026-10-09 04:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,960.5000 → 81,960.6000 58.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:35:00
@ 81,960.5000
1791513288376-3127968
2026-10-09 04:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,951.2900 → 81,951.4200 67.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:35:00
@ 81,951.2900
1791513109083-3126435
2026-10-09 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,899.0600 → 81,899.1600 72.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:32:00
@ 81,899.0600
1791513109083-3126435
2026-10-09 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,875.9400 → 81,876.0700 86.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:32:00
@ 81,875.9400
1791512927770-3125534
2026-10-09 04:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,860.5400 → 81,860.5800 71.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:29:00
@ 81,860.5800
1791512927770-3125534
2026-10-09 04:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,928.1500 → 81,928.2400 80.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:35:00
@ 81,928.1500
1791512927770-3125534
2026-10-09 04:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,937.0500 → 81,937.1800 78.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:35:00
@ 81,937.0500
1791512747660-3124626
2026-10-09 04:25:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,908.2500 → 81,908.3000 90.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:25:00
@ 81,908.2500
1791512747660-3124626
2026-10-09 04:25:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,008.3900 → 82,008.4800 44.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:47:00
@ 82,008.3900
1791512747660-3124626
2026-10-09 04:25:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,943.9500 → 81,944.0800 78.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:35:00
@ 81,943.9500
1791512567981-3123711
2026-10-09 04:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,945.3800 → 81,945.4300 95.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:22:00
@ 81,945.3800
1791512567981-3123711
2026-10-09 04:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,010.1000 → 82,010.2300 67.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:47:00
@ 82,010.1000
1791512388488-3122821
2026-10-09 04:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,985.7800 → 81,985.8300 80.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:19:00
@ 81,985.7800
1791512388488-3122821
2026-10-09 04:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,021.3500 → 82,021.4800 74.00% touched 2026-10-09 04:47:00
@ 82,021.3500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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