Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 12 Oct 2026, 01:55 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791760247739-81031

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791760247739-81031
Published 2026-10-12 01:10:34
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 83,622.5300
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
72.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-12 01:28:00
Market price 83,653.3800.
Actual Market Range
83,563.0200 → 83,685.5500
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791760247739-81031.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 83,653.3800 → 83,655.9800 71.00% 2026-10-12 01:10:34
→ 2026-10-12 01:40:34 		touched 2026-10-12 01:28:00
@ 83,653.3800
60 min 83,670.2100 → 83,670.3100 77.00% 2026-10-12 01:10:34
→ 2026-10-12 02:10:34 		touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,670.2100
90 min 83,717.2900 → 83,717.4200 70.00% 2026-10-12 01:10:34
→ 2026-10-12 02:40:34 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.18% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 67,356 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.63% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-12 01:10:34 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
71.25%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,419 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.25%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,419
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 62.80% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 21 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-11 19:53:00 → 2026-10-12 01:53:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 478 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.87%
Published TouchRate 53.47%
Qualified Hit 85.43%
Published TouchRate 81.93%
60 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.96%
Published TouchRate 63.32%
Qualified Hit 81.64%
Published TouchRate 83.59%
90 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.98%
Published TouchRate 71.86%
Qualified Hit 81.03%
Published TouchRate 85.43%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791762587948-91536
2026-10-12 01:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,647.9800 → 83,648.0300 81.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,647.9800
1791762587948-91536
2026-10-12 01:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,656.6900 → 83,656.7800 85.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,656.6900
1791762587948-91536
2026-10-12 01:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,670.5100 → 83,670.6400 84.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,670.5100
1791762408578-90736
2026-10-12 01:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,611.2400 → 83,611.3000 50.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:46:00
@ 83,611.2700
1791762408578-90736
2026-10-12 01:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,624.8000 → 83,624.9000 93.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:48:00
@ 83,624.8000
1791762408578-90736
2026-10-12 01:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,640.6000 → 83,640.7200 89.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:49:00
@ 83,640.6000
1791762228547-89928
2026-10-12 01:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,606.7600 → 83,606.8500 96.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:43:00
@ 83,606.7600
1791762228547-89928
2026-10-12 01:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,627.2700 → 83,627.4000 89.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:49:00
@ 83,627.2700
1791762048331-89120
2026-10-12 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,642.5200 → 83,642.5700 86.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:49:00
@ 83,642.5200
1791762048331-89120
2026-10-12 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,670.8200 → 83,670.9200 79.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,670.8200
1791762048331-89120
2026-10-12 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 83,678.0900 → 83,678.2200 82.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,678.0900
1791761867996-88321
2026-10-12 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,625.3900 → 83,625.4500 50.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:37:00
@ 83,625.4200
1791761867996-88321
2026-10-12 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,650.5600 → 83,650.6500 87.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,650.5600
1791761688587-87520
2026-10-12 01:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,647.2600 → 83,647.3000 50.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:34:00
@ 83,647.2800
1791761688587-87520
2026-10-12 01:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,682.8800 → 83,682.9800 83.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:51:00
@ 83,682.8800
1791761508040-86715
2026-10-12 01:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,618.2200 → 83,618.2700 92.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:31:00
@ 83,618.2200
1791761508040-86715
2026-10-12 01:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 83,644.5500 → 83,644.6500 83.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:34:00
@ 83,644.5500
1791761327836-85888
2026-10-12 01:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 83,651.9200 → 83,651.9800 68.00% touched 2026-10-12 01:28:00
@ 83,651.9200

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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