Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 14 Oct 2026, 15:55 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791985071021-1097790

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791985071021-1097790
Published 2026-10-14 15:37:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 82,832.8700
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
72.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-14 15:38:00
Market price 82,884.3500.
Actual Market Range
82,629.5500 → 83,026.4100
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791985071021-1097790.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 82,942.8500 → 82,942.8900 65.00% 2026-10-14 15:37:36
→ 2026-10-14 16:07:36 		touched 2026-10-14 15:39:00
@ 82,942.8500
60 min 82,884.3500 → 82,884.4400 91.00% 2026-10-14 15:37:36
→ 2026-10-14 16:37:36 		touched 2026-10-14 15:38:00
@ 82,884.3500
90 min 82,543.8100 → 82,543.9300 60.00% 2026-10-14 15:37:36
→ 2026-10-14 17:07:36 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.31% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 71,098 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.63% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-14 15:37:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.50%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,411 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
88.61%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,411
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.00% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 26 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-14 09:56:00 → 2026-10-14 15:56:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.05%
Published TouchRate 59.67%
Qualified Hit 90.24%
Published TouchRate 84.64%
60 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.37%
Published TouchRate 67.95%
Qualified Hit 88.43%
Published TouchRate 84.84%
90 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.12%
Published TouchRate 73.53%
Qualified Hit 87.80%
Published TouchRate 84.92%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1791985968935-1101786
2026-10-14 15:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,824.3400 → 82,830.1600 64.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:52:00
@ 82,824.3400
1791985789237-1100980
2026-10-14 15:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,669.9100 → 82,670.0300 62.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:55:00
@ 82,670.0300
1791985611989-1100181
2026-10-14 15:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,932.8900 → 82,932.9500 64.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:47:00
@ 82,932.8900
1791985611989-1100181
2026-10-14 15:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,897.5500 → 82,897.6500 87.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:47:00
@ 82,897.5500
1791985430500-1099376
2026-10-14 15:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,643.1700 → 82,643.2900 61.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:55:00
@ 82,643.2900
1791985250929-1098574
2026-10-14 15:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,942.9000 → 82,942.9500 64.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:47:00
@ 82,942.9000
1791985250929-1098574
2026-10-14 15:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,947.5100 → 82,947.6000 80.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:47:00
@ 82,947.5100
1791985071021-1097790
2026-10-14 15:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,942.8500 → 82,942.8900 65.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:39:00
@ 82,942.8500
1791985071021-1097790
2026-10-14 15:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,884.3500 → 82,884.4400 91.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:38:00
@ 82,884.3500
1791984890883-1096975
2026-10-14 15:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,838.0600 → 82,838.1100 71.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:34:00
@ 82,838.0600
1791984890883-1096975
2026-10-14 15:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,726.7900 → 82,726.8900 96.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:35:00
@ 82,726.8900
1791984710542-1096156
2026-10-14 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,853.5600 → 82,858.4400 78.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:33:00
@ 82,853.5600
1791984710542-1096156
2026-10-14 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,640.1700 → 82,640.2700 75.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:55:00
@ 82,640.2700
1791984349296-1094529
2026-10-14 15:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,314.0900 → 82,314.1300 65.00% not touched —
1791984171543-1093741
2026-10-14 15:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,273.5200 → 82,273.5800 64.00% not touched —
1791983990560-1092919
2026-10-14 15:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,211.6700 → 82,211.7300 64.00% not touched —
1791983810061-1092131
2026-10-14 15:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,296.2400 → 82,298.6800 64.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:20:00
@ 82,298.6800
1791983810061-1092131
2026-10-14 15:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,260.4100 → 82,260.5100 70.00% touched 2026-10-14 15:21:00
@ 82,260.5100

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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