Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 16 Oct 2026, 02:20 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792018189014-1247250

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792018189014-1247250
Published 2026-10-15 00:49:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,525.6000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
70.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-15 00:49:00
Market price 81,545.8300.
Actual Market Range
81,346.3200 → 81,727.8700
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792018189014-1247250.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,545.8300 → 81,545.8800 85.00% 2026-10-15 00:49:35
→ 2026-10-15 01:19:35 		touched 2026-10-15 00:49:00
@ 81,545.8300
60 min 81,384.8900 → 81,384.9900 49.00% 2026-10-15 00:49:35
→ 2026-10-15 01:49:35 		touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,384.9900
90 min 81,452.9700 → 81,453.1000 77.00% 2026-10-15 00:49:35
→ 2026-10-15 02:19:35 		touched 2026-10-15 01:08:00
@ 81,453.1000
Historical context at publication time 71.30% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 71,664 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.68% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-15 00:49:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
68.99%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,393 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
71.51%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,393
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 72.18% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 44 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-15 20:21:00 → 2026-10-16 02:21:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.53%
Published TouchRate 65.91%
Qualified Hit 78.80%
Published TouchRate 80.80%
60 min 461 evaluated
Forecast Hit 64.86%
Published TouchRate 74.70%
Qualified Hit 64.92%
Published TouchRate 83.98%
90 min 456 evaluated
Forecast Hit 68.42%
Published TouchRate 76.18%
Qualified Hit 72.90%
Published TouchRate 86.95%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792109808410-1669044
2026-10-16 02:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,219.6900 → 82,219.8200 85.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:20:00
@ 82,219.8200
1792109629529-1668256
2026-10-16 02:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,183.9000 → 82,184.0200 81.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:20:00
@ 82,184.0200
1792109449649-1667450
2026-10-16 02:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,301.2600 → 82,301.3100 52.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:16:00
@ 82,301.2600
1792109449649-1667450
2026-10-16 02:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,244.1800 → 82,244.2800 93.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:10:00
@ 82,244.1800
1792109270109-1666616
2026-10-16 02:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,280.1500 → 82,280.2000 63.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:09:00
@ 82,280.1500
1792109270109-1666616
2026-10-16 02:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,237.7100 → 82,237.8100 95.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:09:00
@ 82,237.7100
1792109088354-1665799
2026-10-16 02:04:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,195.1400 → 82,195.1900 80.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:05:00
@ 82,195.1400
1792108910631-1664992
2026-10-16 02:01:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,167.4700 → 82,167.5200 86.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:04:00
@ 82,167.4700
1792108728294-1664137
2026-10-16 01:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,153.4300 → 82,153.4800 88.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:01:00
@ 82,153.4300
1792108549047-1663335
2026-10-16 01:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,193.4000 → 82,193.4500 67.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:05:00
@ 82,193.4000
1792108369391-1662527
2026-10-16 01:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,191.6500 → 82,191.7000 69.00% touched 2026-10-16 02:05:00
@ 82,191.6500
1792108188560-1661718
2026-10-16 01:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,096.1500 → 82,096.2000 50.00% touched 2026-10-16 01:49:00
@ 82,096.1800
1792108009077-1660926
2026-10-16 01:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,112.8300 → 82,112.8800 94.00% touched 2026-10-16 01:47:00
@ 82,112.8300
1792107828684-1660116
2026-10-16 01:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,066.2800 → 82,066.3300 86.00% touched 2026-10-16 01:43:00
@ 82,066.3300
1792107649166-1658939
2026-10-16 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,038.0100 → 82,038.0600 67.00% not touched —
1792107468719-1657993
2026-10-16 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,088.4700 → 82,088.5200 70.00% touched 2026-10-16 01:41:00
@ 82,088.5200
1792107289036-1657196
2026-10-16 01:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,036.3300 → 82,036.3800 58.00% not touched —
1792107109106-1656370
2026-10-16 01:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,004.1700 → 82,004.2300 40.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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