Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:45 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792018549436-1248843

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792018549436-1248843
Published 2026-10-15 00:55:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,551.8000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
75.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-15 01:00:00
Market price 81,582.9200.
Actual Market Range
81,346.3200 → 81,607.4900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792018549436-1248843.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,582.9200 → 81,582.9600 77.00% 2026-10-15 00:55:35
→ 2026-10-15 01:25:35 		touched 2026-10-15 01:00:00
@ 81,582.9200
60 min 81,486.3600 → 81,486.4500 74.00% 2026-10-15 00:55:35
→ 2026-10-15 01:55:35 		touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,486.4500
90 min 81,477.6800 → 81,477.8100 76.00% 2026-10-15 00:55:35
→ 2026-10-15 02:25:35 		touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,477.8100
Historical context at publication time 71.30% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 71,667 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.69% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-15 00:55:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.64%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,419 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.03%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,419
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 70.66% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 18 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-14 19:45:00 → 2026-10-15 01:45:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.84%
Published TouchRate 63.33%
Qualified Hit 84.70%
Published TouchRate 83.99%
60 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.69%
Published TouchRate 72.89%
Qualified Hit 81.44%
Published TouchRate 84.42%
90 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.40%
Published TouchRate 75.82%
Qualified Hit 80.98%
Published TouchRate 86.58%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792021248720-1261001
2026-10-15 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,450.0400 → 81,450.0900 88.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:40:00
@ 81,450.0900
1792021248720-1261001
2026-10-15 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,481.2800 → 81,481.3800 91.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:44:00
@ 81,481.2800
1792021248720-1261001
2026-10-15 01:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,436.7900 → 81,436.9100 90.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:40:00
@ 81,436.9100
1792021068834-1260177
2026-10-15 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,474.0200 → 81,474.0700 91.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:37:00
@ 81,474.0700
1792021068834-1260177
2026-10-15 01:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,436.9100 → 81,437.0400 83.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:40:00
@ 81,437.0400
1792020529072-1257768
2026-10-15 01:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,420.6600 → 81,420.7100 58.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,420.7100
1792020529072-1257768
2026-10-15 01:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,451.0800 → 81,451.1800 88.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:28:00
@ 81,451.1800
1792020529072-1257768
2026-10-15 01:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,384.4200 → 81,384.5500 68.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,384.5500
1792020348578-1256950
2026-10-15 01:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,407.6700 → 81,407.7200 58.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,407.7200
1792020348578-1256950
2026-10-15 01:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,440.7100 → 81,440.8100 90.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:26:00
@ 81,440.8100
1792020348578-1256950
2026-10-15 01:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,367.7100 → 81,367.8300 67.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,367.8300
1792020168777-1256143
2026-10-15 01:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,395.0300 → 81,395.0800 55.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,395.0800
1792020168777-1256143
2026-10-15 01:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,426.1300 → 81,426.2300 86.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:26:00
@ 81,426.2300
1792019988948-1255336
2026-10-15 01:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,495.6800 → 81,495.7400 93.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:19:00
@ 81,495.7400
1792019988948-1255336
2026-10-15 01:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,382.6800 → 81,382.8100 58.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:30:00
@ 81,382.8100
1792019809498-1254549
2026-10-15 01:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,533.6400 → 81,533.7400 94.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:16:00
@ 81,533.7400
1792019809498-1254549
2026-10-15 01:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,416.9600 → 81,417.0900 56.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:26:00
@ 81,417.0900
1792019628190-1253716
2026-10-15 01:13:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,582.4100 → 81,582.4600 40.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:14:00
@ 81,582.4100

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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