Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 15 Oct 2026, 10:40 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792052029907-1404856

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792052029907-1404856
Published 2026-10-15 10:13:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,188.9000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
1 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
77.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-15 10:17:00
Market price 81,100.7200.
Actual Market Range
81,066.8100 → 81,295.2800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792052029907-1404856.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,100.6700 → 81,100.7200 72.00% 2026-10-15 10:13:35
→ 2026-10-15 10:43:35 		touched 2026-10-15 10:17:00
@ 81,100.7200
60 min 81,335.8500 → 81,335.9500 76.00% 2026-10-15 10:13:35
→ 2026-10-15 11:13:35 		pending —
90 min 81,300.7900 → 81,300.9200 85.00% 2026-10-15 10:13:35
→ 2026-10-15 11:43:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.30% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 72,215 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.67% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-15 10:13:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.28%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,411 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
77.99%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,411
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 26
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 71.08% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 29 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-15 04:39:00 → 2026-10-15 10:39:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.57%
Published TouchRate 64.47%
Qualified Hit 84.57%
Published TouchRate 83.52%
60 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.90%
Published TouchRate 73.79%
Qualified Hit 77.56%
Published TouchRate 82.74%
90 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.32%
Published TouchRate 75.05%
Qualified Hit 74.83%
Published TouchRate 85.96%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792053289815-1410493
2026-10-15 10:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,231.4400 → 81,231.5400 92.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:35:00
@ 81,231.4400
1792053112305-1409691
2026-10-15 10:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,247.7800 → 81,247.8800 87.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:32:00
@ 81,247.7800
1792052929947-1408882
2026-10-15 10:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,176.4500 → 81,176.5500 95.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:30:00
@ 81,176.4500
1792052752155-1408085
2026-10-15 10:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,214.4800 → 81,214.5800 89.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:31:00
@ 81,214.4800
1792052571316-1407278
2026-10-15 10:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,070.5200 → 81,074.1200 79.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:24:00
@ 81,074.1200
1792052571316-1407278
2026-10-15 10:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,209.7300 → 81,209.8300 88.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:30:00
@ 81,209.7300
1792052391431-1406474
2026-10-15 10:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,156.1900 → 81,156.2900 90.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:22:00
@ 81,156.1900
1792052391431-1406474
2026-10-15 10:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,259.1000 → 81,259.2200 78.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:32:00
@ 81,259.1000
1792052210905-1405660
2026-10-15 10:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,259.7800 → 81,259.8800 80.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:32:00
@ 81,259.7800
1792052210905-1405660
2026-10-15 10:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,280.1300 → 81,280.2600 81.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:32:00
@ 81,280.1300
1792052029907-1404856
2026-10-15 10:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,100.6700 → 81,100.7200 72.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:17:00
@ 81,100.7200
1792051853668-1404057
2026-10-15 10:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,122.0900 → 81,122.1400 92.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:17:00
@ 81,122.1400
1792051853668-1404057
2026-10-15 10:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,294.6100 → 81,294.7100 76.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:32:00
@ 81,294.6100
1792051853668-1404057
2026-10-15 10:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,253.5600 → 81,253.6900 86.00% touched 2026-10-15 10:32:00
@ 81,253.5600
1792051670896-1403254
2026-10-15 10:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,383.9600 → 81,386.9600 68.00% not touched —
1792051490861-1402444
2026-10-15 10:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,424.3400 → 81,426.9000 67.00% not touched —
1792051310181-1401640
2026-10-15 10:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,587.2600 → 81,587.3200 67.00% not touched —
1792051130159-1400781
2026-10-15 09:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,529.5100 → 81,529.5500 68.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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