Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 15 Oct 2026, 18:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792081549678-1539819

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792081549678-1539819
Published 2026-10-15 18:25:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 82,174.9000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
85.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-15 18:26:00
Market price 82,134.1800.
Actual Market Range
81,856.6100 → 82,189.3200
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792081549678-1539819.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 82,071.2300 → 82,071.2700 72.00% 2026-10-15 18:25:35
→ 2026-10-15 18:55:35 		touched 2026-10-15 18:27:00
@ 82,071.2700
60 min 82,134.0900 → 82,134.1800 95.00% 2026-10-15 18:25:35
→ 2026-10-15 19:25:35 		touched 2026-10-15 18:26:00
@ 82,134.1800
90 min 82,364.8800 → 82,365.0100 88.00% 2026-10-15 18:25:35
→ 2026-10-15 19:55:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.37% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 72,694 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.70% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-15 18:25:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.66%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,397 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
77.71%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,397
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 71.19% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 40 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-15 12:51:00 → 2026-10-15 18:51:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 474 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.47%
Published TouchRate 64.30%
Qualified Hit 83.52%
Published TouchRate 82.43%
60 min 465 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.19%
Published TouchRate 73.95%
Qualified Hit 75.91%
Published TouchRate 83.29%
90 min 458 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.27%
Published TouchRate 75.53%
Qualified Hit 76.05%
Published TouchRate 85.33%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792082271900-1543726
2026-10-15 18:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,084.5100 → 82,084.6400 97.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:37:00
@ 82,084.5100
1792082093002-1542862
2026-10-15 18:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,996.5600 → 81,996.6800 50.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:34:00
@ 81,996.6200
1792081910586-1541874
2026-10-15 18:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,873.7600 → 81,873.8200 70.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:32:00
@ 81,873.8200
1792081910586-1541874
2026-10-15 18:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,889.1800 → 81,889.2800 90.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:32:00
@ 81,889.2800
1792081910586-1541874
2026-10-15 18:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,103.9700 → 82,104.0900 92.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:45:00
@ 82,103.9700
1792081729350-1540762
2026-10-15 18:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,927.8200 → 81,930.9400 70.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:31:00
@ 81,930.9400
1792081729350-1540762
2026-10-15 18:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,932.5100 → 81,932.6100 88.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:31:00
@ 81,932.6100
1792081729350-1540762
2026-10-15 18:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,148.2100 → 82,148.3400 93.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:45:00
@ 82,148.2100
1792081549678-1539819
2026-10-15 18:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,071.2300 → 82,071.2700 72.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:27:00
@ 82,071.2700
1792081549678-1539819
2026-10-15 18:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,134.0900 → 82,134.1800 95.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:26:00
@ 82,134.1800
1792081369975-1538993
2026-10-15 18:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,137.0800 → 82,137.1300 76.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:24:00
@ 82,137.1300
1792081189384-1538188
2026-10-15 18:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,231.5600 → 82,235.0600 96.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:19:00
@ 82,235.0600
1792081189384-1538188
2026-10-15 18:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,310.6200 → 82,310.7200 93.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:21:00
@ 82,310.6200
1792081009125-1537395
2026-10-15 18:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,349.2800 → 82,349.3300 94.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:16:00
@ 82,349.2800
1792080829978-1536588
2026-10-15 18:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,477.9400 → 82,477.9900 88.00% not touched —
1792080650323-1535730
2026-10-15 18:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,447.3500 → 82,447.4000 91.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:10:00
@ 82,447.3500
1792080469526-1534930
2026-10-15 18:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,469.5400 → 82,469.5900 82.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:08:00
@ 82,469.5400
1792080290542-1534122
2026-10-15 18:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,250.6100 → 82,250.6500 50.00% touched 2026-10-15 18:04:00
@ 82,250.6300

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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