Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 18 Oct 2026, 05:10 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792291427928-87811

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792291427928-87811
Published 2026-10-18 04:43:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,633.1600
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
74.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-18 04:51:00
Market price 81,682.5200.
Actual Market Range
81,599.0000 → 81,867.2000
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792291427928-87811.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,682.5200 → 81,682.5700 72.00% 2026-10-18 04:43:35
→ 2026-10-18 05:13:35 		touched 2026-10-18 04:51:00
@ 81,682.5200
60 min 81,563.3300 → 81,563.4300 76.00% 2026-10-18 04:43:35
→ 2026-10-18 05:43:35 		pending —
90 min 81,716.4000 → 81,716.5200 76.00% 2026-10-18 04:43:35
→ 2026-10-18 06:13:35 		touched 2026-10-18 04:57:00
@ 81,716.4000
Historical context at publication time 71.32% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 75,505 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.78% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-18 04:43:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
76.14%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 721 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
90.89%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
721
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.60% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 8 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-17 23:12:00 → 2026-10-18 05:12:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 242 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.83%
Published TouchRate 57.09%
Qualified Hit 90.70%
Published TouchRate 80.36%
60 min 239 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.55%
Published TouchRate 69.68%
Qualified Hit 88.15%
Published TouchRate 82.05%
90 min 240 evaluated
Forecast Hit 87.08%
Published TouchRate 76.11%
Qualified Hit 93.10%
Published TouchRate 83.20%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792292867403-93809
2026-10-18 05:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,823.6100 → 81,823.6600 60.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:10:00
@ 81,823.6100
1792292867403-93809
2026-10-18 05:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,862.9000 → 81,863.0000 57.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:11:00
@ 81,862.9000
1792292867403-93809
2026-10-18 05:07:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,859.9600 → 81,860.0900 69.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:11:00
@ 81,859.9600
1792292688461-93068
2026-10-18 05:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,719.6700 → 81,719.7100 89.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:05:00
@ 81,719.6700
1792292688461-93068
2026-10-18 05:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,761.4200 → 81,761.5200 75.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:06:00
@ 81,761.4200
1792292688461-93068
2026-10-18 05:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,778.2400 → 81,778.3600 76.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:09:00
@ 81,778.2400
1792292510085-92331
2026-10-18 05:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,773.5900 → 81,773.6400 72.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:09:00
@ 81,773.5900
1792292510085-92331
2026-10-18 05:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,794.7600 → 81,794.8500 72.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:10:00
@ 81,794.7600
1792292510085-92331
2026-10-18 05:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,827.3700 → 81,827.4900 69.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:10:00
@ 81,827.3700
1792292327219-91541
2026-10-18 04:58:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,744.9300 → 81,744.9800 77.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:00:00
@ 81,744.9300
1792292327219-91541
2026-10-18 04:58:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,773.7200 → 81,773.8200 72.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:09:00
@ 81,773.7200
1792292327219-91541
2026-10-18 04:58:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,803.8300 → 81,803.9500 70.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:10:00
@ 81,803.8300
1792292147703-90806
2026-10-18 04:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,677.3200 → 81,677.3600 89.00% touched 2026-10-18 04:56:00
@ 81,677.3200
1792292147703-90806
2026-10-18 04:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,687.3200 → 81,687.4200 88.00% touched 2026-10-18 04:57:00
@ 81,687.3200
1792292147703-90806
2026-10-18 04:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,722.8000 → 81,722.9300 80.00% touched 2026-10-18 04:57:00
@ 81,722.8000
1792291968096-90044
2026-10-18 04:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,721.5900 → 81,721.6400 75.00% touched 2026-10-18 04:57:00
@ 81,721.5900
1792291968096-90044
2026-10-18 04:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,717.8500 → 81,717.9400 85.00% touched 2026-10-18 04:57:00
@ 81,717.8500
1792291968096-90044
2026-10-18 04:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,757.4400 → 81,757.5700 76.00% touched 2026-10-18 05:06:00
@ 81,757.4400

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 714 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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