Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 18 Oct 2026, 08:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792303668290-139021

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792303668290-139021
Published 2026-10-18 08:07:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,624.7000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
86.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-18 08:09:00
Market price 81,634.9900.
Actual Market Range
81,561.7600 → 81,678.0000
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792303668290-139021.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,634.9900 → 81,635.0400 88.00% 2026-10-18 08:07:35
→ 2026-10-18 08:37:35 		touched 2026-10-18 08:09:00
@ 81,634.9900
60 min 81,597.3500 → 81,597.4500 85.00% 2026-10-18 08:07:35
→ 2026-10-18 09:07:35 		touched 2026-10-18 08:19:00
@ 81,597.4500
90 min 81,582.1800 → 81,582.3100 85.00% 2026-10-18 08:07:35
→ 2026-10-18 09:37:35 		touched 2026-10-18 08:19:00
@ 81,582.3100
Historical context at publication time 71.32% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 75,700 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.78% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-18 08:07:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
77.54%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 699 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
91.38%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
699
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.62% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 30 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-18 02:48:00 → 2026-10-18 08:48:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 238 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.69%
Published TouchRate 57.22%
Qualified Hit 92.86%
Published TouchRate 80.95%
60 min 234 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.50%
Published TouchRate 69.57%
Qualified Hit 90.08%
Published TouchRate 82.09%
90 min 227 evaluated
Forecast Hit 83.70%
Published TouchRate 76.52%
Qualified Hit 91.67%
Published TouchRate 83.11%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792305828729-148090
2026-10-18 08:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,618.7700 → 81,618.8200 80.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:47:00
@ 81,618.8200
1792305828729-148090
2026-10-18 08:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,655.6200 → 81,655.7200 88.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:45:00
@ 81,655.6200
1792305647695-147343
2026-10-18 08:40:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,642.5500 → 81,642.6800 97.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:40:00
@ 81,642.6800
1792305467842-146606
2026-10-18 08:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,658.6100 → 81,658.6500 88.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:37:00
@ 81,658.6100
1792305467842-146606
2026-10-18 08:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,668.1000 → 81,668.2000 89.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:37:00
@ 81,668.1000
1792305467842-146606
2026-10-18 08:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,634.4700 → 81,634.5900 94.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:41:00
@ 81,634.5900
1792305288106-145831
2026-10-18 08:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,657.4500 → 81,657.5100 50.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:34:00
@ 81,657.4800
1792305288106-145831
2026-10-18 08:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,650.1700 → 81,650.2900 97.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:34:00
@ 81,650.2900
1792304747921-143567
2026-10-18 08:25:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,614.0100 → 81,614.0600 92.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:32:00
@ 81,614.0100
1792304747921-143567
2026-10-18 08:25:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,588.6500 → 81,588.7400 90.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:28:00
@ 81,588.7400
1792304388292-142041
2026-10-18 08:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,596.6000 → 81,596.6400 50.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:19:00
@ 81,596.6200
1792304208377-141291
2026-10-18 08:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,672.6400 → 81,672.6900 74.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:35:00
@ 81,672.6400
1792304208377-141291
2026-10-18 08:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,590.9900 → 81,591.0900 69.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:19:00
@ 81,591.0900
1792304208377-141291
2026-10-18 08:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,607.3100 → 81,607.4300 85.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:19:00
@ 81,607.4300
1792304027401-140555
2026-10-18 08:13:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,702.1000 → 81,702.1400 58.00% not touched —
1792304027401-140555
2026-10-18 08:13:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,639.5600 → 81,639.6600 87.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:14:00
@ 81,639.6600
1792304027401-140555
2026-10-18 08:13:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,654.8100 → 81,654.9400 97.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:14:00
@ 81,654.9400
1792303848583-139786
2026-10-18 08:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,632.1400 → 81,632.1800 50.00% touched 2026-10-18 08:10:00
@ 81,632.1600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 714 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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