Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 22 Oct 2026, 00:35 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792618309463-1491750

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792618309463-1491750
Published 2026-10-21 23:31:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,731.5300
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
52.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
One or more horizons are still pending.
Actual Market Range
84,498.2700 → 84,779.7300
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792618309463-1491750.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 84,816.7600 → 84,818.9000 49.00% 2026-10-21 23:31:35
→ 2026-10-22 00:01:35 		not touched —
60 min 84,865.8700 → 84,865.9700 50.00% 2026-10-21 23:31:35
→ 2026-10-22 00:31:35 		not touched —
90 min 84,872.0800 → 84,872.2100 58.00% 2026-10-21 23:31:35
→ 2026-10-22 01:01:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.48% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 80,941 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.76% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-21 23:31:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.21%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,396 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.19%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,396
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.90% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 26 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-21 18:33:00 → 2026-10-22 00:33:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 66.81%
Published TouchRate 59.26%
Qualified Hit 81.76%
Published TouchRate 84.35%
60 min 463 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.92%
Published TouchRate 68.75%
Qualified Hit 80.43%
Published TouchRate 83.69%
90 min 460 evaluated
Forecast Hit 78.04%
Published TouchRate 75.94%
Qualified Hit 81.45%
Published TouchRate 86.54%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792621010100-1503073
2026-10-22 00:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,654.8800 → 84,654.9300 80.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:16:00
@ 84,654.9300
1792621010100-1503073
2026-10-22 00:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,711.8600 → 84,711.9900 93.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:16:00
@ 84,711.8600
1792620829843-1502317
2026-10-22 00:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,629.1400 → 84,629.1900 68.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:17:00
@ 84,629.1900
1792620829843-1502317
2026-10-22 00:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,664.4800 → 84,664.6000 96.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:13:00
@ 84,664.6000
1792620651337-1501587
2026-10-22 00:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,646.3100 → 84,646.3600 76.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:11:00
@ 84,646.3600
1792620651337-1501587
2026-10-22 00:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,707.7100 → 84,707.8100 91.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:15:00
@ 84,707.7100
1792620651337-1501587
2026-10-22 00:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,705.4300 → 84,705.5500 94.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:15:00
@ 84,705.4300
1792620470370-1500815
2026-10-22 00:07:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,721.0400 → 84,721.0800 50.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:07:00
@ 84,721.0600
1792620289291-1500056
2026-10-22 00:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,594.4500 → 84,594.5000 67.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:17:00
@ 84,594.5000
1792620289291-1500056
2026-10-22 00:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,662.0700 → 84,662.1700 94.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:04:00
@ 84,662.0700
1792620289291-1500056
2026-10-22 00:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,714.6900 → 84,714.8200 80.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:07:00
@ 84,714.6900
1792620109369-1499325
2026-10-22 00:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,615.4700 → 84,615.5200 71.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:02:00
@ 84,615.5200
1792620109369-1499325
2026-10-22 00:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,698.3900 → 84,698.4900 85.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:06:00
@ 84,698.3900
1792620109369-1499325
2026-10-22 00:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,736.9000 → 84,737.0300 78.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:07:00
@ 84,736.9000
1792619928540-1498523
2026-10-21 23:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,738.5800 → 84,738.6300 95.00% touched 2026-10-22 00:00:00
@ 84,738.6300
1792619748708-1497774
2026-10-21 23:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,787.8700 → 84,787.9200 80.00% not touched —
1792619569196-1497002
2026-10-21 23:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,822.3900 → 84,822.4400 64.00% not touched —
1792619389124-1496261
2026-10-21 23:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,814.7300 → 84,814.7700 53.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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