Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 23 Oct 2026, 05:25 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792633069312-1554223

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792633069312-1554223
Published 2026-10-22 03:37:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 83,949.5300
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
51.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-22 03:38:00
Market price 83,860.9400.
Actual Market Range
82,705.0500 → 83,980.0400
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792633069312-1554223.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 83,857.2000 → 83,860.9400 30.00% 2026-10-22 03:37:35
→ 2026-10-22 04:07:35 		touched 2026-10-22 03:38:00
@ 83,860.9400
60 min 83,811.0800 → 83,811.1800 50.00% 2026-10-22 03:37:35
→ 2026-10-22 04:37:35 		touched 2026-10-22 03:38:00
@ 83,811.1800
90 min 83,842.3600 → 83,842.4900 75.00% 2026-10-22 03:37:35
→ 2026-10-22 05:07:35 		touched 2026-10-22 03:38:00
@ 83,842.4900
Historical context at publication time 71.48% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 81,180 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.75% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-22 03:37:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
77.08%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,392 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
85.68%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,392
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.64% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 39 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-22 23:26:00 → 2026-10-23 05:26:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.25%
Published TouchRate 60.35%
Qualified Hit 87.98%
Published TouchRate 84.03%
60 min 461 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.36%
Published TouchRate 71.19%
Qualified Hit 86.18%
Published TouchRate 84.61%
90 min 460 evaluated
Forecast Hit 81.74%
Published TouchRate 77.59%
Qualified Hit 84.04%
Published TouchRate 85.62%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792725410021-1950761
2026-10-23 05:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,640.6500 → 81,640.7000 66.00% touched 2026-10-23 05:19:00
@ 81,640.7000
1792725049235-1949221
2026-10-23 05:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,742.7800 → 81,742.8300 87.00% touched 2026-10-23 05:11:00
@ 81,742.8300
1792724870250-1948432
2026-10-23 05:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,739.7400 → 81,739.7900 80.00% touched 2026-10-23 05:11:00
@ 81,739.7900
1792724691880-1947672
2026-10-23 05:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,820.0600 → 81,820.1100 89.00% touched 2026-10-23 05:04:00
@ 81,820.0600
1792723969342-1944404
2026-10-23 04:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,920.6400 → 81,920.6800 42.00% not touched —
1792723788653-1943642
2026-10-23 04:49:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,899.6100 → 81,899.6500 41.00% not touched —
1792723609182-1942869
2026-10-23 04:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,889.9300 → 81,889.9900 40.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:55:00
@ 81,889.9300
1792723429556-1942102
2026-10-23 04:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,819.8600 → 81,819.9000 39.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:45:00
@ 81,819.8600
1792723429556-1942102
2026-10-23 04:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,856.8300 → 81,856.9300 40.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:54:00
@ 81,856.8300
1792723429556-1942102
2026-10-23 04:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,876.1400 → 81,876.2700 44.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:55:00
@ 81,876.1400
1792723250497-1941332
2026-10-23 04:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,890.8800 → 81,890.9200 38.00% not touched —
1792723069206-1940544
2026-10-23 04:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,890.4300 → 81,890.4900 36.00% not touched —
1792722889178-1939734
2026-10-23 04:34:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,879.7300 → 81,879.7900 32.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:37:00
@ 81,879.7300
1792722710636-1938966
2026-10-23 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,788.2100 → 81,788.2700 29.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:33:00
@ 81,788.2100
1792722710636-1938966
2026-10-23 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,825.1900 → 81,825.2900 30.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:36:00
@ 81,825.1900
1792722710636-1938966
2026-10-23 04:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,775.5600 → 81,775.6900 60.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:33:00
@ 81,775.5600
1792722528530-1938200
2026-10-23 04:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,590.4200 → 81,590.4600 28.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:30:00
@ 81,590.4200
1792722528530-1938200
2026-10-23 04:28:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,519.0700 → 81,519.1600 78.00% touched 2026-10-23 04:29:00
@ 81,519.0700

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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