Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 22 Oct 2026, 10:10 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792653951422-1642665

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792653951422-1642665
Published 2026-10-22 09:25:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 82,185.4800
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
66.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-22 09:50:00
Market price 82,075.5100.
Actual Market Range
81,991.2200 → 82,254.5700
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792653951422-1642665.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 82,075.4500 → 82,075.5100 55.00% 2026-10-22 09:25:36
→ 2026-10-22 09:55:36 		touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,075.5100
60 min 82,038.4300 → 82,038.5300 71.00% 2026-10-22 09:25:36
→ 2026-10-22 10:25:36 		touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,038.5300
90 min 81,988.4500 → 81,988.5700 72.00% 2026-10-22 09:25:36
→ 2026-10-22 10:55:36 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.53% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 81,527 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.79% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-22 09:25:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
76.50%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,400 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.03%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,400
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 70.39% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 25 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-22 04:12:00 → 2026-10-22 10:12:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 472 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.79%
Published TouchRate 63.01%
Qualified Hit 84.92%
Published TouchRate 84.92%
60 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.00%
Published TouchRate 73.28%
Qualified Hit 81.27%
Published TouchRate 84.12%
90 min 458 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.67%
Published TouchRate 75.01%
Qualified Hit 78.42%
Published TouchRate 86.74%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792656111636-1651773
2026-10-22 10:01:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,112.1400 → 82,112.1900 87.00% touched 2026-10-22 10:01:00
@ 82,112.1900
1792655930798-1650956
2026-10-22 09:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,109.3600 → 82,109.4000 82.00% touched 2026-10-22 10:00:00
@ 82,109.4000
1792655750632-1650209
2026-10-22 09:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,136.1000 → 82,136.1500 90.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:55:00
@ 82,136.1500
1792655750632-1650209
2026-10-22 09:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,005.4300 → 82,005.5300 55.00% touched 2026-10-22 10:02:00
@ 82,005.5300
1792655570705-1649452
2026-10-22 09:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,099.7100 → 82,101.2900 73.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:52:00
@ 82,101.2900
1792655570705-1649452
2026-10-22 09:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,998.4500 → 81,998.5500 56.00% touched 2026-10-22 10:11:00
@ 81,998.5500
1792655389776-1648692
2026-10-22 09:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,131.4900 → 82,131.5400 79.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,131.5400
1792655389776-1648692
2026-10-22 09:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,021.4700 → 82,021.5700 58.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,021.5700
1792655210252-1647940
2026-10-22 09:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,171.7900 → 82,171.8400 83.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:49:00
@ 82,171.8400
1792655210252-1647940
2026-10-22 09:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,090.1700 → 82,090.2700 68.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,090.2700
1792655030790-1647186
2026-10-22 09:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,163.2300 → 82,163.2700 88.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:49:00
@ 82,163.2700
1792655030790-1647186
2026-10-22 09:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,039.0000 → 82,039.1000 60.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,039.1000
1792654849766-1646439
2026-10-22 09:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,140.0100 → 82,140.0600 72.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,140.0600
1792654849766-1646439
2026-10-22 09:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,045.6600 → 82,045.7600 62.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,045.7600
1792654669742-1645683
2026-10-22 09:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,097.0500 → 82,097.1000 55.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,097.1000
1792654669742-1645683
2026-10-22 09:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,042.0700 → 82,042.1700 63.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,042.1700
1792654489277-1644938
2026-10-22 09:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,095.8200 → 82,095.8700 52.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,095.8700
1792654489277-1644938
2026-10-22 09:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 82,062.7300 → 82,062.8300 68.00% touched 2026-10-22 09:50:00
@ 82,062.8300

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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