Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 22 Oct 2026, 12:20 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792662591024-1679011

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792662591024-1679011
Published 2026-10-22 11:49:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,803.0200
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
87.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-22 11:49:00
Market price 81,793.2600.
Actual Market Range
81,734.5300 → 81,999.9900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792662591024-1679011.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,793.2100 → 81,793.2600 92.00% 2026-10-22 11:49:35
→ 2026-10-22 12:19:35 		touched 2026-10-22 11:49:00
@ 81,793.2600
60 min 81,758.4200 → 81,758.5100 86.00% 2026-10-22 11:49:35
→ 2026-10-22 12:49:35 		touched 2026-10-22 11:53:00
@ 81,758.5100
90 min 81,718.0600 → 81,718.1900 85.00% 2026-10-22 11:49:35
→ 2026-10-22 13:19:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.56% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 81,651 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.77% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-22 11:49:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
78.93%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,381 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.95%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,381
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 70.45% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 41 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-22 06:21:00 → 2026-10-22 12:21:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 468 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.85%
Published TouchRate 63.03%
Qualified Hit 84.83%
Published TouchRate 84.91%
60 min 459 evaluated
Forecast Hit 82.79%
Published TouchRate 73.38%
Qualified Hit 82.18%
Published TouchRate 84.16%
90 min 454 evaluated
Forecast Hit 78.19%
Published TouchRate 75.14%
Qualified Hit 79.93%
Published TouchRate 86.91%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792664031037-1685058
2026-10-22 12:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,965.1700 → 81,965.3000 95.00% touched 2026-10-22 12:14:00
@ 81,965.1700
1792663851812-1684327
2026-10-22 12:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,919.0100 → 81,919.1400 96.00% touched 2026-10-22 12:10:00
@ 81,919.0100
1792663310981-1682058
2026-10-22 12:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,913.4000 → 81,913.5300 99.00% touched 2026-10-22 12:01:00
@ 81,913.4000
1792663131034-1681278
2026-10-22 11:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,920.9400 → 81,920.9900 29.00% touched 2026-10-22 12:01:00
@ 81,920.9400
1792663131034-1681278
2026-10-22 11:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,849.6800 → 81,849.7800 89.00% touched 2026-10-22 11:59:00
@ 81,849.6800
1792662950929-1680510
2026-10-22 11:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,886.3800 → 81,886.4300 44.00% touched 2026-10-22 12:01:00
@ 81,886.3800
1792662771652-1679746
2026-10-22 11:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,811.0100 → 81,811.0600 87.00% touched 2026-10-22 11:52:00
@ 81,811.0100
1792662771652-1679746
2026-10-22 11:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,772.2400 → 81,772.3400 93.00% touched 2026-10-22 11:52:00
@ 81,772.3400
1792662591024-1679011
2026-10-22 11:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,793.2100 → 81,793.2600 92.00% touched 2026-10-22 11:49:00
@ 81,793.2600
1792662591024-1679011
2026-10-22 11:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,758.4200 → 81,758.5100 86.00% touched 2026-10-22 11:53:00
@ 81,758.5100
1792662410445-1678263
2026-10-22 11:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,675.0700 → 81,675.1200 65.00% not touched —
1792662230604-1677507
2026-10-22 11:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,690.8900 → 81,690.9500 50.00% touched 2026-10-22 11:43:00
@ 81,690.9200
1792662050667-1676668
2026-10-22 11:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,666.4800 → 81,666.5200 92.00% not touched —
1792661869727-1675915
2026-10-22 11:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,647.7100 → 81,652.2100 64.00% not touched —
1792661689910-1675138
2026-10-22 11:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,655.0400 → 81,655.0900 83.00% not touched —
1792661510560-1674391
2026-10-22 11:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,658.1100 → 81,658.1600 83.00% not touched —
1792661329889-1673628
2026-10-22 11:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,579.6900 → 81,579.7400 50.00% not touched —
1792661150944-1672878
2026-10-22 11:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,570.8500 → 81,570.9000 32.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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