Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 24 Oct 2026, 19:45 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792860950841-2540824

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792860950841-2540824
Published 2026-10-24 18:55:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 80,097.3100
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
66.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
One or more horizons are still pending.
Actual Market Range
80,000.0000 → 80,182.3900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792860950841-2540824.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 80,207.2900 → 80,207.3300 59.00% 2026-10-24 18:55:35
→ 2026-10-24 19:25:35 		not touched —
60 min 80,244.2600 → 80,244.3600 73.00% 2026-10-24 18:55:35
→ 2026-10-24 19:55:35 		pending —
90 min 80,386.2500 → 80,386.3700 68.00% 2026-10-24 18:55:35
→ 2026-10-24 20:25:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.54% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 84,963 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.71% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-24 18:55:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
71.32%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,391 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
84.34%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,391
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 66.64% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 46 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-24 13:47:00 → 2026-10-24 19:47:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.42%
Published TouchRate 59.23%
Qualified Hit 87.13%
Published TouchRate 84.38%
60 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.91%
Published TouchRate 66.72%
Qualified Hit 86.19%
Published TouchRate 83.32%
90 min 454 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.59%
Published TouchRate 74.30%
Qualified Hit 81.42%
Published TouchRate 84.48%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792863651148-2552547
2026-10-24 19:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,094.2600 → 80,094.3100 91.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:42:00
@ 80,094.2600
1792863289655-2550981
2026-10-24 19:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,050.1200 → 80,050.1700 88.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:36:00
@ 80,050.1700
1792863110426-2550193
2026-10-24 19:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,077.7300 → 80,077.7800 97.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:31:00
@ 80,077.7300
1792862930294-2549414
2026-10-24 19:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,109.0400 → 80,109.0800 96.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:29:00
@ 80,109.0800
1792862570476-2547860
2026-10-24 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,122.2800 → 80,122.3300 93.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:22:00
@ 80,122.2800
1792862210674-2546327
2026-10-24 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,133.4800 → 80,133.5400 62.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:21:00
@ 80,133.4800
1792862030990-2545529
2026-10-24 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,109.9800 → 80,110.0200 62.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:17:00
@ 80,109.9800
1792862030990-2545529
2026-10-24 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,118.0800 → 80,118.1800 78.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:17:00
@ 80,118.0800
1792861850168-2544749
2026-10-24 19:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,135.9800 → 80,136.0200 62.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:23:00
@ 80,135.9800
1792861670561-2543985
2026-10-24 19:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,227.2300 → 80,227.2700 62.00% not touched —
1792861490208-2543193
2026-10-24 19:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,250.1500 → 80,250.2000 61.00% not touched —
1792861310669-2542421
2026-10-24 19:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,185.7300 → 80,185.7900 60.00% not touched —
1792861130278-2541599
2026-10-24 18:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,248.2400 → 80,248.3000 60.00% not touched —
1792860950841-2540824
2026-10-24 18:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,207.2900 → 80,207.3300 59.00% not touched —
1792860771782-2540045
2026-10-24 18:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,185.8800 → 80,185.9200 59.00% not touched —
1792860590133-2539268
2026-10-24 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 79,986.0200 → 79,986.0800 58.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 79,986.0200
1792860590133-2539268
2026-10-24 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,023.0000 → 80,023.1000 72.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 80,023.0000
1792860590133-2539268
2026-10-24 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,132.5700 → 80,132.7000 71.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 80,132.5700

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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