Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 28 Oct 2026, 23:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1793222390426-4073285

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1793222390426-4073285
Published 2026-10-28 22:19:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,308.8800
Run Hit Rate
33.33%
1 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
70.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-28 22:25:00
Market price 81,281.8100.
Actual Market Range
81,041.5700 → 81,378.1600
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1793222390426-4073285.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,418.8600 → 81,418.9000 46.00% 2026-10-28 22:19:35
→ 2026-10-28 22:49:35 		not touched —
60 min 81,419.0800 → 81,419.1800 69.00% 2026-10-28 22:19:35
→ 2026-10-28 23:19:35 		not touched —
90 min 81,281.6900 → 81,281.8100 95.00% 2026-10-28 22:19:35
→ 2026-10-28 23:49:35 		touched 2026-10-28 22:25:00
@ 81,281.8100
Historical context at publication time 71.42% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 90,969 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.65% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-28 22:19:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
74.61%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,406 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.40%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,406
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.79% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 25 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-28 17:47:00 → 2026-10-28 23:47:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.15%
Published TouchRate 59.52%
Qualified Hit 83.96%
Published TouchRate 84.24%
60 min 467 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.37%
Published TouchRate 69.46%
Qualified Hit 82.13%
Published TouchRate 85.22%
90 min 469 evaluated
Forecast Hit 79.32%
Published TouchRate 74.42%
Qualified Hit 84.07%
Published TouchRate 87.44%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1793227430952-4094523
2026-10-28 23:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,224.9500 → 81,224.9900 50.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:43:00
@ 81,224.9700
1793227250336-4093775
2026-10-28 23:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,268.9200 → 81,269.0500 98.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:46:00
@ 81,268.9200
1793227070439-4093037
2026-10-28 23:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,239.8500 → 81,239.9000 90.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:37:00
@ 81,239.8500
1793227070439-4093037
2026-10-28 23:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,209.5700 → 81,209.7000 98.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:37:00
@ 81,209.7000
1793226890424-4092277
2026-10-28 23:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,281.8600 → 81,281.9900 96.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:35:00
@ 81,281.9900
1793226711815-4091527
2026-10-28 23:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,213.4800 → 81,213.5300 92.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:31:00
@ 81,213.5300
1793226711815-4091527
2026-10-28 23:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,302.4600 → 81,302.5600 80.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:32:00
@ 81,302.4600
1793226711815-4091527
2026-10-28 23:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,219.6000 → 81,219.7300 98.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:31:00
@ 81,219.7300
1793226531038-4090771
2026-10-28 23:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,146.9200 → 81,147.0200 50.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:28:00
@ 81,146.9700
1793226350564-4090004
2026-10-28 23:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,044.6300 → 81,044.7600 95.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:26:00
@ 81,044.7600
1793226170407-4089246
2026-10-28 23:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,131.6200 → 81,131.7400 96.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:28:00
@ 81,131.6200
1793225991657-4088493
2026-10-28 23:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,185.1900 → 81,185.3100 88.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:29:00
@ 81,185.1900
1793225811454-4087758
2026-10-28 23:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,138.1000 → 81,138.1400 84.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:16:00
@ 81,138.1400
1793225811454-4087758
2026-10-28 23:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,069.0500 → 81,069.1500 72.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:25:00
@ 81,069.1500
1793225811454-4087758
2026-10-28 23:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,261.1300 → 81,261.2600 84.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:31:00
@ 81,261.1300
1793225631302-4087003
2026-10-28 23:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,286.7900 → 81,286.8300 68.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:32:00
@ 81,286.7900
1793225631302-4087003
2026-10-28 23:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,199.2600 → 81,199.3600 93.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:13:00
@ 81,199.3600
1793225631302-4087003
2026-10-28 23:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,317.9500 → 81,318.0700 84.00% touched 2026-10-28 23:32:00
@ 81,317.9500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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