Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 31 Oct 2026, 01:30 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1793310050943-248937

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1793310050943-248937
Published 2026-10-29 22:40:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 79,350.1600
Run Hit Rate
66.67%
2 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
78.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-29 22:43:00
Market price 79,203.2100.
Actual Market Range
78,448.4900 → 79,422.4000
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1793310050943-248937.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 79,460.1400 → 79,460.1800 74.00% 2026-10-29 22:40:35
→ 2026-10-29 23:10:35 		not touched —
60 min 79,203.1100 → 79,203.2100 83.00% 2026-10-29 22:40:35
→ 2026-10-29 23:40:35 		touched 2026-10-29 22:43:00
@ 79,203.2100
90 min 79,061.1000 → 79,061.2200 78.00% 2026-10-29 22:40:35
→ 2026-10-30 00:10:35 		touched 2026-10-29 22:44:00
@ 79,061.2200
Historical context at publication time 71.48% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 92,430 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.72% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-29 22:40:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
81.58%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,390 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
86.86%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,390
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 75.69% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 38 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-30 19:33:00 → 2026-10-31 01:33:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 82.66%
Published TouchRate 69.65%
Qualified Hit 86.67%
Published TouchRate 82.45%
60 min 459 evaluated
Forecast Hit 83.88%
Published TouchRate 78.02%
Qualified Hit 87.99%
Published TouchRate 82.18%
90 min 458 evaluated
Forecast Hit 78.17%
Published TouchRate 79.61%
Qualified Hit 85.87%
Published TouchRate 84.65%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1793406712387-655574
2026-10-31 01:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,127.4800 → 77,127.5200 83.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:31:00
@ 77,127.5200
1793406532575-654822
2026-10-31 01:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,172.5500 → 77,172.6000 97.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:28:00
@ 77,172.6000
1793406172468-653309
2026-10-31 01:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,199.8800 → 77,199.9300 92.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:22:00
@ 77,199.8800
1793405631197-651052
2026-10-31 01:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,171.6900 → 77,171.7400 97.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:13:00
@ 77,171.6900
1793405272601-649526
2026-10-31 01:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,110.2200 → 77,110.2700 91.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:31:00
@ 77,110.2700
1793405272601-649526
2026-10-31 01:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,217.0700 → 77,217.1700 77.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:12:00
@ 77,217.0700
1793405272601-649526
2026-10-31 01:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,271.4600 → 77,271.5900 70.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:19:00
@ 77,271.4600
1793405092697-648764
2026-10-31 01:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,138.8800 → 77,138.9300 95.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:04:00
@ 77,138.8800
1793404914713-648019
2026-10-31 01:01:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,321.4300 → 77,321.4900 47.00% not touched —
1793404730164-647214
2026-10-31 00:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,296.3000 → 77,296.3500 47.00% not touched —
1793404550862-646465
2026-10-31 00:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,223.1800 → 77,223.2300 68.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:00:00
@ 77,223.1800
1793404371036-645708
2026-10-31 00:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,262.4200 → 77,262.4800 47.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:18:00
@ 77,262.4200
1793404190653-644958
2026-10-31 00:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,277.8700 → 77,277.9100 47.00% not touched —
1793404011911-644206
2026-10-31 00:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,258.4500 → 77,258.5100 47.00% not touched —
1793403832308-643453
2026-10-31 00:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,269.8800 → 77,269.9200 47.00% not touched —
1793403651469-642703
2026-10-31 00:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,231.9200 → 77,231.9700 52.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:00:00
@ 77,231.9200
1793403471834-641947
2026-10-31 00:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,265.5500 → 77,265.6100 47.00% not touched —
1793403291191-641203
2026-10-31 00:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,233.4500 → 77,233.4900 47.00% touched 2026-10-31 01:00:00
@ 77,233.4500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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