Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 31 Oct 2026, 00:55 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1793398430836-620792

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1793398430836-620792
Published 2026-10-30 23:13:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 76,744.4800
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
78.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-30 23:18:00
Market price 76,681.3300.
Actual Market Range
76,553.2900 → 77,216.4100
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1793398430836-620792.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 76,801.1200 → 76,801.1700 71.00% 2026-10-30 23:13:35
→ 2026-10-30 23:43:35 		touched 2026-10-30 23:33:00
@ 76,801.1200
60 min 76,855.2500 → 76,855.3500 75.00% 2026-10-30 23:13:35
→ 2026-10-31 00:13:35 		touched 2026-10-31 00:03:00
@ 76,855.2500
90 min 76,681.2000 → 76,681.3300 90.00% 2026-10-30 23:13:35
→ 2026-10-31 00:43:35 		touched 2026-10-30 23:18:00
@ 76,681.3300
Historical context at publication time 71.65% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 93,891 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.84% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-30 23:13:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
82.42%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,399 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
87.54%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,399
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 75.90% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 23 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-30 18:54:00 → 2026-10-31 00:54:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 468 evaluated
Forecast Hit 83.76%
Published TouchRate 69.95%
Qualified Hit 86.92%
Published TouchRate 81.97%
60 min 468 evaluated
Forecast Hit 84.19%
Published TouchRate 78.19%
Qualified Hit 88.32%
Published TouchRate 82.26%
90 min 463 evaluated
Forecast Hit 79.27%
Published TouchRate 79.60%
Qualified Hit 87.19%
Published TouchRate 84.50%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1793403111775-640434
2026-10-31 00:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,103.0500 → 77,103.1000 46.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,103.0500
1793403111775-640434
2026-10-31 00:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,140.0200 → 77,140.1200 66.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,140.0200
1793403111775-640434
2026-10-31 00:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,156.9600 → 77,157.0900 71.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,156.9600
1793402930084-639679
2026-10-31 00:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,112.8900 → 77,112.9500 46.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,112.8900
1793402930084-639679
2026-10-31 00:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,149.8700 → 77,149.9700 66.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,149.8700
1793402930084-639679
2026-10-31 00:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,200.3000 → 77,200.4300 66.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:34:00
@ 77,200.3000
1793402750694-638929
2026-10-31 00:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,146.5400 → 77,146.5800 46.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,146.5400
1793402750694-638929
2026-10-31 00:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,183.5100 → 77,183.6100 66.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:34:00
@ 77,183.5100
1793402570749-638169
2026-10-31 00:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,014.4900 → 77,014.5400 67.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:23:00
@ 77,014.4900
1793402570749-638169
2026-10-31 00:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,098.2200 → 77,098.3200 66.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,098.2200
1793402570749-638169
2026-10-31 00:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,128.6500 → 77,128.7800 70.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:33:00
@ 77,128.6500
1793402390373-637430
2026-10-31 00:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 76,960.5200 → 76,960.5700 70.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:22:00
@ 76,960.5200
1793402390373-637430
2026-10-31 00:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,049.4300 → 77,049.5300 66.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:23:00
@ 77,049.4300
1793402390373-637430
2026-10-31 00:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,026.2600 → 77,026.3800 79.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:23:00
@ 77,026.2600
1793402210076-636658
2026-10-31 00:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 76,891.3000 → 76,891.3500 86.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:18:00
@ 76,891.3000
1793402210076-636658
2026-10-31 00:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 76,934.8200 → 76,934.9200 83.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:22:00
@ 76,934.8200
1793402210076-636658
2026-10-31 00:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 76,940.7500 → 76,940.8800 87.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:22:00
@ 76,940.7500
1793402030109-635904
2026-10-31 00:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 76,952.1600 → 76,952.2100 75.00% touched 2026-10-31 00:22:00
@ 76,952.1600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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