Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 02 Nov 2026, 01:40 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1793480150750-966503

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1793480150750-966503
Published 2026-10-31 21:55:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 77,404.9600
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
67.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-31 21:55:00
Market price 77,404.9600.
Actual Market Range
77,283.1900 → 77,623.0800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1793480150750-966503.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 77,380.9500 → 77,381.0000 60.00% 2026-10-31 21:55:35
→ 2026-10-31 22:25:35 		touched 2026-10-31 22:01:00
@ 77,381.0000
60 min 77,404.9100 → 77,405.0100 50.00% 2026-10-31 21:55:35
→ 2026-10-31 22:55:35 		touched 2026-10-31 21:55:00
@ 77,404.9600
90 min 77,393.3500 → 77,393.4800 93.00% 2026-10-31 21:55:35
→ 2026-10-31 23:25:35 		touched 2026-10-31 22:01:00
@ 77,393.4800
Historical context at publication time 71.68% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 95,250 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.82% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-31 21:55:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
71.41%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,406 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.89%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,406
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 60.97% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 28 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-01 19:39:00 → 2026-11-02 01:39:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 472 evaluated
Forecast Hit 67.37%
Published TouchRate 49.36%
Qualified Hit 89.08%
Published TouchRate 81.35%
60 min 472 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.76%
Published TouchRate 62.23%
Qualified Hit 83.33%
Published TouchRate 82.47%
90 min 462 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.19%
Published TouchRate 71.53%
Qualified Hit 82.08%
Published TouchRate 82.68%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1793579691238-1387251
2026-11-02 01:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,982.9700 → 77,983.1000 88.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:38:00
@ 77,982.9700
1793579513352-1386498
2026-11-02 01:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,982.1400 → 77,982.2400 50.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:31:00
@ 77,982.1900
1793579330871-1385742
2026-11-02 01:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,921.1500 → 77,921.2000 31.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:35:00
@ 77,921.2000
1793579330871-1385742
2026-11-02 01:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 78,062.4100 → 78,062.5100 89.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:28:00
@ 78,062.4100
1793579153455-1384989
2026-11-02 01:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 78,013.9200 → 78,014.0200 94.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:25:00
@ 78,013.9200
1793578972823-1384231
2026-11-02 01:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,927.5300 → 77,927.6200 96.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:23:00
@ 77,927.6200
1793578972823-1384231
2026-11-02 01:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 78,025.7100 → 78,025.8300 79.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:25:00
@ 78,025.7100
1793578790759-1383477
2026-11-02 01:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,923.8800 → 77,923.9800 96.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:19:00
@ 77,923.9800
1793578790759-1383477
2026-11-02 01:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 78,030.5800 → 78,030.7100 76.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:25:00
@ 78,030.5800
1793578611290-1382514
2026-11-02 01:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,964.5500 → 77,966.4900 42.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:18:00
@ 77,966.4900
1793578611290-1382514
2026-11-02 01:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 78,059.1000 → 78,059.2000 96.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:16:00
@ 78,059.1000
1793578432372-1381769
2026-11-02 01:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,975.7100 → 77,975.7600 48.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:17:00
@ 77,975.7600
1793578432372-1381769
2026-11-02 01:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 78,030.7800 → 78,030.8800 94.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:14:00
@ 78,030.8800
1793578254665-1381011
2026-11-02 01:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 78,115.3900 → 78,115.4300 87.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:10:00
@ 78,115.4300
1793578073539-1380251
2026-11-02 01:07:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 78,297.1400 → 78,297.1800 48.00% not touched —
1793577893355-1379487
2026-11-02 01:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 78,482.3400 → 78,482.3800 28.00% not touched —
1793577714230-1378760
2026-11-02 01:01:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 78,373.8600 → 78,373.9000 27.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:03:00
@ 78,373.8600
1793577531783-1377958
2026-11-02 00:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 78,340.3600 → 78,340.4000 26.00% touched 2026-11-02 01:03:00
@ 78,340.3600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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