Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

Clear
Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 03 Nov 2026, 22:05 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1793738271608-2053837

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1793738271608-2053837
Published 2026-11-03 21:37:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 77,716.2200
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
58.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-03 21:38:00
Market price 77,758.2600.
Actual Market Range
77,699.0000 → 77,860.0800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1793738271608-2053837.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 77,758.2600 → 77,758.3000 70.00% 2026-11-03 21:37:35
→ 2026-11-03 22:07:35 		touched 2026-11-03 21:38:00
@ 77,758.2600
60 min 77,855.8700 → 77,855.9700 42.00% 2026-11-03 21:37:35
→ 2026-11-03 22:37:35 		touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,855.8700
90 min 77,827.0600 → 77,827.1900 62.00% 2026-11-03 21:37:35
→ 2026-11-03 23:07:35 		touched 2026-11-03 21:57:00
@ 77,827.0600
Historical context at publication time 71.64% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 99,521 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.63% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-03 21:37:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
69.95%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,401 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.81%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,401
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.47% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 18 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-03 16:06:00 → 2026-11-03 22:06:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 471 evaluated
Forecast Hit 64.76%
Published TouchRate 58.14%
Qualified Hit 83.66%
Published TouchRate 84.64%
60 min 467 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.24%
Published TouchRate 68.24%
Qualified Hit 81.45%
Published TouchRate 84.51%
90 min 463 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.95%
Published TouchRate 76.19%
Qualified Hit 85.49%
Published TouchRate 85.75%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1793739711735-2059804
2026-11-03 22:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,759.1000 → 77,759.1400 77.00% touched 2026-11-03 22:01:00
@ 77,759.1000
1793739352789-2058281
2026-11-03 21:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,839.9800 → 77,840.0200 55.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,839.9800
1793739172612-2057560
2026-11-03 21:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,830.5400 → 77,830.5900 59.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,830.5400
1793738991625-2056792
2026-11-03 21:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,855.5800 → 77,855.6300 49.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,855.5800
1793738812997-2056057
2026-11-03 21:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,802.0800 → 77,802.1300 48.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:56:00
@ 77,802.0800
1793738812997-2056057
2026-11-03 21:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,833.7900 → 77,833.8900 53.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,833.7900
1793738812997-2056057
2026-11-03 21:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,853.3200 → 77,853.4500 56.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,853.3200
1793738632444-2055318
2026-11-03 21:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,823.3400 → 77,830.5600 34.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:57:00
@ 77,823.3400
1793738632444-2055318
2026-11-03 21:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,848.9200 → 77,849.0200 47.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,848.9200
1793738632444-2055318
2026-11-03 21:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,849.1900 → 77,849.3200 57.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,849.1900
1793738271608-2053837
2026-11-03 21:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,758.2600 → 77,758.3000 70.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:38:00
@ 77,758.2600
1793738271608-2053837
2026-11-03 21:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,855.8700 → 77,855.9700 42.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:58:00
@ 77,855.8700
1793738271608-2053837
2026-11-03 21:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,827.0600 → 77,827.1900 62.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:57:00
@ 77,827.0600
1793738092664-2053090
2026-11-03 21:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,705.0100 → 77,705.0700 79.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:35:00
@ 77,705.0100
1793738092664-2053090
2026-11-03 21:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,794.3100 → 77,794.4100 49.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:39:00
@ 77,794.3100
1793738092664-2053090
2026-11-03 21:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 77,728.1300 → 77,728.2600 82.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:37:00
@ 77,728.1300
1793737912539-2052376
2026-11-03 21:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 77,778.7600 → 77,778.8000 41.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:38:00
@ 77,778.7600
1793737912539-2052376
2026-11-03 21:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 77,793.3300 → 77,793.4300 54.00% touched 2026-11-03 21:39:00
@ 77,793.3300

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
Explore Quantalis

Turn verified statistics into a live market view.

Review available markets and plans, or start with Quantalis when you are ready to receive live analytical outputs.

See markets & pricing Get Started

© 2026 SALAZAR & Co. d.o.o. All rights reserved.