Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 10 Nov 2026, 11:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794211675222-394637

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794211675222-394637
Published 2026-11-09 09:07:37
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 73,703.0300
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
59.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
No verified touch was recorded.
Actual Market Range
73,654.3900 → 74,637.4100
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794211675222-394637.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 73,593.0100 → 73,593.0500 46.00% 2026-11-09 09:07:37
→ 2026-11-09 09:37:37 		not touched —
60 min 73,555.9800 → 73,556.0800 64.00% 2026-11-09 09:07:37
→ 2026-11-09 10:07:37 		not touched —
90 min 73,503.6200 → 73,503.7500 69.00% 2026-11-09 09:07:37
→ 2026-11-09 10:37:37 		not touched —
Historical context at publication time 71.68% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 107,406 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.69% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-09 09:07:37 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
74.06%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,403 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.90%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,403
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.75% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 31 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-10 05:15:00 → 2026-11-10 11:15:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.88%
Published TouchRate 60.17%
Qualified Hit 92.26%
Published TouchRate 83.65%
60 min 469 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.91%
Published TouchRate 70.09%
Qualified Hit 84.30%
Published TouchRate 82.70%
90 min 461 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.40%
Published TouchRate 76.19%
Qualified Hit 79.63%
Published TouchRate 83.55%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794305272683-1034666
2026-11-10 11:07:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 74,296.2800 → 74,296.4100 89.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:12:00
@ 74,296.4100
1794305092999-1033442
2026-11-10 11:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,347.4400 → 74,347.4900 85.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:04:00
@ 74,347.4400
1794305092999-1033442
2026-11-10 11:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 74,344.8100 → 74,344.9100 94.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:04:00
@ 74,344.8100
1794305092999-1033442
2026-11-10 11:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 74,305.8700 → 74,306.0000 94.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:07:00
@ 74,306.0000
1794304914428-1032284
2026-11-10 11:01:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 74,421.0900 → 74,421.2100 96.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:02:00
@ 74,421.2100
1794304733113-1031057
2026-11-10 10:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 74,316.3700 → 74,316.4700 64.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:07:00
@ 74,316.4700
1794304733113-1031057
2026-11-10 10:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 74,344.3600 → 74,344.4800 81.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:03:00
@ 74,344.4800
1794304554845-1029905
2026-11-10 10:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,464.5500 → 74,464.6100 42.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:02:00
@ 74,464.5500
1794304554845-1029905
2026-11-10 10:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 74,284.9200 → 74,285.0200 68.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:12:00
@ 74,285.0200
1794304373944-1028712
2026-11-10 10:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,418.6900 → 74,418.7400 64.00% touched 2026-11-10 10:57:00
@ 74,418.6900
1794304373944-1028712
2026-11-10 10:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 74,277.2300 → 74,277.3200 68.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:12:00
@ 74,277.3200
1794304196195-1027509
2026-11-10 10:49:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,403.0300 → 74,403.0800 81.00% touched 2026-11-10 10:56:00
@ 74,403.0300
1794304196195-1027509
2026-11-10 10:49:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 74,294.1700 → 74,294.2700 71.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:12:00
@ 74,294.2700
1794304014031-1026296
2026-11-10 10:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 74,390.3900 → 74,390.4900 95.00% touched 2026-11-10 10:47:00
@ 74,390.4900
1794304014031-1026296
2026-11-10 10:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 74,286.7200 → 74,286.8400 71.00% touched 2026-11-10 11:12:00
@ 74,286.8400
1794303833494-1025109
2026-11-10 10:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,277.8000 → 74,277.8500 89.00% touched 2026-11-10 10:43:00
@ 74,277.8000
1794303654928-1023951
2026-11-10 10:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,400.2000 → 74,400.2500 35.00% touched 2026-11-10 10:45:00
@ 74,400.2000
1794303474565-1022730
2026-11-10 10:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 74,260.4200 → 74,260.4700 84.00% touched 2026-11-10 10:38:00
@ 74,260.4700

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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