Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 12 Nov 2026, 08:45 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794468353196-2373412

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794468353196-2373412
Published 2026-11-12 08:25:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 73,396.2400
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
1 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
60.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-12 08:25:00
Market price 73,426.9500.
Actual Market Range
73,396.2300 → 73,546.2800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794468353196-2373412.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 73,426.9500 → 73,427.0000 69.00% 2026-11-12 08:25:36
→ 2026-11-12 08:55:36 		touched 2026-11-12 08:25:00
@ 73,426.9500
60 min 73,271.9800 → 73,272.0800 32.00% 2026-11-12 08:25:36
→ 2026-11-12 09:25:36 		pending —
90 min 73,354.9300 → 73,355.0600 79.00% 2026-11-12 08:25:36
→ 2026-11-12 09:55:36 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.72% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 111,672 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.74% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-12 08:25:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.25%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,416 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
80.21%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,416
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.46% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 21 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-12 02:45:00 → 2026-11-12 08:45:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 474 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.00%
Published TouchRate 61.57%
Qualified Hit 82.80%
Published TouchRate 83.03%
60 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 72.77%
Published TouchRate 71.82%
Qualified Hit 79.92%
Published TouchRate 84.97%
90 min 472 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.97%
Published TouchRate 75.03%
Qualified Hit 78.91%
Published TouchRate 85.35%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794469254511-2379260
2026-11-12 08:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 73,502.8400 → 73,502.9300 93.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:41:00
@ 73,502.9300
1794469254511-2379260
2026-11-12 08:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 73,504.7700 → 73,504.9000 95.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:41:00
@ 73,504.9000
1794469072696-2378100
2026-11-12 08:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 73,520.8800 → 73,520.9800 50.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:37:00
@ 73,520.9300
1794468892663-2376916
2026-11-12 08:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,463.1800 → 73,463.2300 75.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:43:00
@ 73,463.2300
1794468892663-2376916
2026-11-12 08:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 73,472.5800 → 73,472.7100 92.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:43:00
@ 73,472.7100
1794468532478-2374584
2026-11-12 08:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,545.5500 → 73,545.6000 46.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:38:00
@ 73,545.5500
1794468532478-2374584
2026-11-12 08:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 73,432.0100 → 73,432.1100 65.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:31:00
@ 73,432.1100
1794468532478-2374584
2026-11-12 08:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 73,469.2000 → 73,469.3300 89.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:30:00
@ 73,469.3300
1794468353196-2373412
2026-11-12 08:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,426.9500 → 73,427.0000 69.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:25:00
@ 73,426.9500
1794468172663-2372218
2026-11-12 08:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,458.0500 → 73,458.1000 50.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:22:00
@ 73,458.0700
1794468172663-2372218
2026-11-12 08:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 73,429.3600 → 73,429.4900 85.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:24:00
@ 73,429.4900
1794467992892-2371048
2026-11-12 08:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,437.1700 → 73,437.2200 59.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:19:00
@ 73,437.2200
1794467992892-2371048
2026-11-12 08:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 73,408.2100 → 73,408.3000 59.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:25:00
@ 73,408.3000
1794467992892-2371048
2026-11-12 08:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 73,451.4200 → 73,451.5400 86.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:19:00
@ 73,451.5400
1794467633245-2368714
2026-11-12 08:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,345.6700 → 73,345.7200 56.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:16:00
@ 73,345.7200
1794467633245-2368714
2026-11-12 08:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 73,361.7200 → 73,361.8500 86.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:15:00
@ 73,361.8500
1794467455306-2367554
2026-11-12 08:10:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 73,328.7800 → 73,328.8300 34.00% not touched —
1794467455306-2367554
2026-11-12 08:10:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 73,334.9100 → 73,335.0100 60.00% touched 2026-11-12 08:16:00
@ 73,335.0100

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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