Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 13 Nov 2026, 12:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794476094701-2423726

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794476094701-2423726
Published 2026-11-12 10:34:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 73,381.2000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
61.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-12 10:34:00
Market price 73,381.2000.
Actual Market Range
73,276.2200 → 73,536.7200
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794476094701-2423726.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 73,381.1700 → 73,381.2300 50.00% 2026-11-12 10:34:36
→ 2026-11-12 11:04:36 		touched 2026-11-12 10:34:00
@ 73,381.2000
60 min 73,345.8800 → 73,345.9800 78.00% 2026-11-12 10:34:36
→ 2026-11-12 11:34:36 		touched 2026-11-12 10:37:00
@ 73,345.9800
90 min 73,290.2500 → 73,290.3800 56.00% 2026-11-12 10:34:36
→ 2026-11-12 12:04:36 		touched 2026-11-12 11:09:00
@ 73,290.3800
Historical context at publication time 71.70% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 111,810 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.73% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-12 10:34:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
81.60%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,397 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
79.55%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,397
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 23
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 71.05% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 40 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-13 06:15:00 → 2026-11-13 12:15:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.42%
Published TouchRate 64.05%
Qualified Hit 85.13%
Published TouchRate 82.88%
60 min 463 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.99%
Published TouchRate 74.37%
Qualified Hit 76.15%
Published TouchRate 83.20%
90 min 459 evaluated
Forecast Hit 83.44%
Published TouchRate 74.96%
Qualified Hit 79.62%
Published TouchRate 85.05%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794567895130-3081945
2026-11-13 12:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,334.7500 → 69,334.8000 81.00% touched 2026-11-13 12:07:00
@ 69,334.7500
1794567717642-3080626
2026-11-13 12:01:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,317.7100 → 69,317.7700 91.00% touched 2026-11-13 12:02:00
@ 69,317.7100
1794567354586-3077990
2026-11-13 11:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,228.3000 → 69,228.3500 50.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:55:00
@ 69,228.3200
1794566993150-3075301
2026-11-13 11:49:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,212.9900 → 69,213.0500 79.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:55:00
@ 69,213.0500
1794566815457-3073988
2026-11-13 11:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,302.3600 → 69,302.4100 94.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:47:00
@ 69,302.3600
1794566633617-3072692
2026-11-13 11:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,164.0000 → 69,164.0500 71.00% not touched —
1794566455112-3071379
2026-11-13 11:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,249.3200 → 69,249.3700 92.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:42:00
@ 69,249.3200
1794566455112-3071379
2026-11-13 11:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 69,351.4800 → 69,351.5800 77.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:57:00
@ 69,351.4800
1794566275542-3069965
2026-11-13 11:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,336.2600 → 69,336.3100 71.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:51:00
@ 69,336.2600
1794566093873-3068585
2026-11-13 11:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,240.5000 → 69,240.5500 89.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:34:00
@ 69,240.5000
1794566093873-3068585
2026-11-13 11:34:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 69,316.2900 → 69,316.3800 80.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:51:00
@ 69,316.2900
1794565914591-3067268
2026-11-13 11:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,325.1800 → 69,325.2300 72.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:51:00
@ 69,325.1800
1794565735423-3065926
2026-11-13 11:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,357.3000 → 69,357.3600 60.00% not touched —
1794565554554-3064406
2026-11-13 11:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,335.2300 → 69,335.2700 60.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:51:00
@ 69,335.2300
1794565373838-3062532
2026-11-13 11:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,396.2300 → 69,396.2700 60.00% not touched —
1794565195734-3061093
2026-11-13 11:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,463.6700 → 69,463.7100 60.00% not touched —
1794565014954-3059700
2026-11-13 11:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 69,373.2900 → 69,373.3300 60.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:19:00
@ 69,373.2900
1794565014954-3059700
2026-11-13 11:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 69,410.2600 → 69,410.3600 72.00% touched 2026-11-13 11:19:00
@ 69,410.2600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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