Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 14 Nov 2026, 18:15 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794587692159-3225539

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794587692159-3225539
Published 2026-11-13 17:34:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 68,611.8000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
73.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-13 17:34:00
Market price 68,611.8000.
Actual Market Range
68,465.0400 → 69,067.9600
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794587692159-3225539.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 68,611.7700 → 68,611.8300 50.00% 2026-11-13 17:34:35
→ 2026-11-13 18:04:35 		touched 2026-11-13 17:34:00
@ 68,611.8000
60 min 68,736.3400 → 68,736.4300 76.00% 2026-11-13 17:34:35
→ 2026-11-13 18:34:35 		touched 2026-11-13 17:35:00
@ 68,736.3400
90 min 68,564.2400 → 68,564.3700 94.00% 2026-11-13 17:34:35
→ 2026-11-13 19:04:35 		touched 2026-11-13 17:45:00
@ 68,564.3700
Historical context at publication time 71.84% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 113,670 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.77% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-13 17:34:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
78.00%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,418 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.07%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,418
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 72.58% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 19 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-14 12:18:00 → 2026-11-14 18:18:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 475 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.11%
Published TouchRate 66.83%
Qualified Hit 88.77%
Published TouchRate 86.01%
60 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 78.86%
Published TouchRate 75.04%
Qualified Hit 78.57%
Published TouchRate 83.32%
90 min 470 evaluated
Forecast Hit 81.06%
Published TouchRate 75.92%
Qualified Hit 79.05%
Published TouchRate 86.98%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794676432947-3689277
2026-11-14 18:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,057.2400 → 65,057.2900 61.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:16:00
@ 65,057.2900
1794676432947-3689277
2026-11-14 18:13:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,185.2600 → 65,185.3600 97.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:13:00
@ 65,185.2600
1794676254284-3688041
2026-11-14 18:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,031.3400 → 65,031.4400 84.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:11:00
@ 65,031.4400
1794676254284-3688041
2026-11-14 18:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,091.1300 → 65,091.2600 96.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:10:00
@ 65,091.2600
1794675893829-3685492
2026-11-14 18:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,210.8200 → 65,210.8700 97.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:04:00
@ 65,210.8700
1794675893829-3685492
2026-11-14 18:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,071.6700 → 65,071.7700 76.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:07:00
@ 65,071.7700
1794675893829-3685492
2026-11-14 18:04:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,218.6600 → 65,218.7800 50.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:04:00
@ 65,218.7200
1794675713774-3684208
2026-11-14 18:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,028.5100 → 65,028.5600 61.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:11:00
@ 65,028.5600
1794675713774-3684208
2026-11-14 18:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,144.4800 → 65,144.6100 99.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:01:00
@ 65,144.4800
1794675533483-3682914
2026-11-14 17:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,301.4900 → 65,301.5800 84.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:59:00
@ 65,301.5800
1794675353664-3681670
2026-11-14 17:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,377.6700 → 65,377.7100 50.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:55:00
@ 65,377.6900
1794675353664-3681670
2026-11-14 17:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,277.9900 → 65,278.0900 83.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:59:00
@ 65,278.0900
1794675171608-3680405
2026-11-14 17:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,310.8600 → 65,310.9100 97.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:52:00
@ 65,310.9100
1794675171608-3680405
2026-11-14 17:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,234.6900 → 65,234.7900 86.00% touched 2026-11-14 18:00:00
@ 65,234.7900
1794675171608-3680405
2026-11-14 17:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,318.4300 → 65,318.5500 50.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:52:00
@ 65,318.4900
1794674993266-3679087
2026-11-14 17:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,015.5400 → 65,015.6000 61.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:49:00
@ 65,015.6000
1794674993266-3679087
2026-11-14 17:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 64,978.5200 → 64,978.6200 75.00% touched 2026-11-14 17:49:00
@ 64,978.6200
1794674632698-3676557
2026-11-14 17:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,515.6200 → 65,515.6800 61.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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