Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 15 Nov 2026, 14:10 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794655915366-3570877

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794655915366-3570877
Published 2026-11-14 12:31:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 67,108.1100
Run Hit Rate
66.67%
2 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
63.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-14 12:31:00
Market price 67,045.3400.
Actual Market Range
66,844.1400 → 67,265.3900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794655915366-3570877.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 67,025.8900 → 67,025.9300 48.00% 2026-11-14 12:31:36
→ 2026-11-14 13:01:36 		not touched —
60 min 67,045.2400 → 67,045.3400 75.00% 2026-11-14 12:31:36
→ 2026-11-14 13:31:36 		touched 2026-11-14 12:31:00
@ 67,045.3400
90 min 67,009.0900 → 67,009.2200 68.00% 2026-11-14 12:31:36
→ 2026-11-14 14:01:36 		touched 2026-11-14 13:53:00
@ 67,009.2200
Historical context at publication time 71.87% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 114,807 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.84% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-14 12:31:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
79.20%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,428 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
76.50%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,428
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
2m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 78.68% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 9 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-15 08:09:00 → 2026-11-15 14:09:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 478 evaluated
Forecast Hit 81.17%
Published TouchRate 74.18%
Qualified Hit 78.95%
Published TouchRate 82.46%
60 min 473 evaluated
Forecast Hit 79.92%
Published TouchRate 81.73%
Qualified Hit 77.43%
Published TouchRate 85.35%
90 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 76.52%
Published TouchRate 80.17%
Qualified Hit 73.44%
Published TouchRate 86.37%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794748072847-4099806
2026-11-15 14:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,496.7500 → 65,496.8700 99.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:07:00
@ 65,496.7500
1794747892368-4098553
2026-11-15 14:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,484.3200 → 65,484.3800 50.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:04:00
@ 65,484.3500
1794747892368-4098553
2026-11-15 14:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,519.8500 → 65,519.9700 97.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:05:00
@ 65,519.8500
1794747713247-4097279
2026-11-15 14:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,578.2100 → 65,578.2700 83.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:01:00
@ 65,578.2100
1794747713247-4097279
2026-11-15 14:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,549.4600 → 65,549.5900 97.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:01:00
@ 65,549.4600
1794747533788-4095975
2026-11-15 13:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,499.6200 → 65,499.6700 93.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:01:00
@ 65,499.6200
1794747533788-4095975
2026-11-15 13:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,513.4800 → 65,513.5800 95.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:01:00
@ 65,513.4800
1794747533788-4095975
2026-11-15 13:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,528.0700 → 65,528.2000 95.00% touched 2026-11-15 14:01:00
@ 65,528.0700
1794747352031-4094711
2026-11-15 13:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,421.8000 → 65,421.8500 94.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:55:00
@ 65,421.8500
1794747352031-4094711
2026-11-15 13:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,462.7200 → 65,462.8200 98.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:55:00
@ 65,462.7200
1794747352031-4094711
2026-11-15 13:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,457.9000 → 65,458.0300 99.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:55:00
@ 65,457.9000
1794747171502-4093456
2026-11-15 13:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,426.5200 → 65,426.5700 97.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:52:00
@ 65,426.5200
1794747171502-4093456
2026-11-15 13:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,423.8800 → 65,423.9800 99.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:52:00
@ 65,423.8800
1794747171502-4093456
2026-11-15 13:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,430.4000 → 65,430.5300 99.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:52:00
@ 65,430.4000
1794746992552-4092150
2026-11-15 13:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,363.9200 → 65,363.9600 50.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:49:00
@ 65,363.9400
1794746992552-4092150
2026-11-15 13:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,356.6100 → 65,356.7400 99.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:49:00
@ 65,356.7400
1794746812303-4090884
2026-11-15 13:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,530.2200 → 65,530.2800 85.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:57:00
@ 65,530.2200
1794746812303-4090884
2026-11-15 13:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,483.1200 → 65,483.2200 99.00% touched 2026-11-15 13:46:00
@ 65,483.1200

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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