Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 14 Nov 2026, 15:45 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794665274279-3614023

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794665274279-3614023
Published 2026-11-14 15:07:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 66,482.1500
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
43.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-14 15:08:00
Market price 66,387.5000.
Actual Market Range
65,852.0000 → 66,595.9800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794665274279-3614023.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 66,387.4500 → 66,387.5000 41.00% 2026-11-14 15:07:36
→ 2026-11-14 15:37:36 		touched 2026-11-14 15:08:00
@ 66,387.5000
60 min 66,335.1000 → 66,335.2000 52.00% 2026-11-14 15:07:36
→ 2026-11-14 16:07:36 		touched 2026-11-14 15:23:00
@ 66,335.2000
90 min 66,193.0900 → 66,193.2200 38.00% 2026-11-14 15:07:36
→ 2026-11-14 16:37:36 		touched 2026-11-14 15:27:00
@ 66,193.2200
Historical context at publication time 71.89% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 114,963 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.83% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-14 15:07:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
77.22%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 1,427 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
80.48%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
1,427
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 72.93% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 10 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-14 09:48:00 → 2026-11-14 15:48:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 477 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.00%
Published TouchRate 67.61%
Qualified Hit 89.34%
Published TouchRate 85.93%
60 min 476 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.52%
Published TouchRate 75.13%
Qualified Hit 76.71%
Published TouchRate 83.43%
90 min 474 evaluated
Forecast Hit 80.17%
Published TouchRate 76.08%
Qualified Hit 78.82%
Published TouchRate 87.14%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794667074380-3622232
2026-11-14 15:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,871.4800 → 65,871.5400 42.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:39:00
@ 65,871.5400
1794666896366-3621429
2026-11-14 15:34:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,941.0500 → 65,941.7100 41.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:34:00
@ 65,941.7100
1794666896366-3621429
2026-11-14 15:34:37 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,904.3300 → 65,904.4300 55.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:39:00
@ 65,904.4300
1794666713626-3620608
2026-11-14 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 66,034.2300 → 66,034.2900 40.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:34:00
@ 66,034.2900
1794666713626-3620608
2026-11-14 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,997.2100 → 65,997.3100 54.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:34:00
@ 65,997.3100
1794666713626-3620608
2026-11-14 15:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,855.2000 → 65,855.3200 48.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:39:00
@ 65,855.3200
1794666534383-3619761
2026-11-14 15:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 66,157.9900 → 66,158.0500 39.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:31:00
@ 66,158.0500
1794666534383-3619761
2026-11-14 15:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 66,120.9700 → 66,121.0700 54.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:31:00
@ 66,121.0700
1794666534383-3619761
2026-11-14 15:28:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 65,978.9600 → 65,979.0800 47.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:34:00
@ 65,979.0800
1794666356797-3618943
2026-11-14 15:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 65,940.3800 → 65,940.4200 37.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:26:00
@ 65,940.4200
1794666356797-3618943
2026-11-14 15:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 65,903.3500 → 65,903.4500 53.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:39:00
@ 65,903.4500
1794666173604-3618127
2026-11-14 15:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 66,377.4500 → 66,377.4900 36.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:23:00
@ 66,377.4900
1794666173604-3618127
2026-11-14 15:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 66,388.3200 → 66,388.4100 67.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:23:00
@ 66,388.4100
1794666173604-3618127
2026-11-14 15:22:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 66,244.5900 → 66,244.7100 52.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:27:00
@ 66,244.7100
1794665994213-3617298
2026-11-14 15:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 66,435.0100 → 66,435.0500 36.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:23:00
@ 66,435.0500
1794665994213-3617298
2026-11-14 15:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 66,451.5800 → 66,451.6800 69.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:22:00
@ 66,451.6800
1794665994213-3617298
2026-11-14 15:19:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 66,295.7600 → 66,295.8900 50.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:23:00
@ 66,295.8900
1794665813265-3616492
2026-11-14 15:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 66,357.1700 → 66,357.2100 35.00% touched 2026-11-14 15:23:00
@ 66,357.2100

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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