Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 07:30 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790915507860-161445

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790915507860-161445
Published 2026-10-02 06:31:34
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,820.2100
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
62.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
One or more horizons are still pending.
Actual Market Range
86,264.9300 → 86,853.1200
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790915507860-161445.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,930.1800 → 86,930.2400 56.00% 2026-10-02 06:31:34
→ 2026-10-02 07:01:34 		not touched —
60 min 86,967.1600 → 86,967.2600 69.00% 2026-10-02 06:31:34
→ 2026-10-02 07:31:34 		pending —
90 min 87,109.1500 → 87,109.2700 61.00% 2026-10-02 06:31:34
→ 2026-10-02 08:01:34 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 70.72% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,321 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.98% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 06:31:34 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
71.26%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 9,979 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
80.04%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
9,979
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.08% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 38 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 01:32:00 → 2026-10-02 07:32:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,337 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.08%
Published TouchRate 59.46%
Qualified Hit 85.12%
Published TouchRate 83.04%
60 min 3,324 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.54%
Published TouchRate 69.98%
Qualified Hit 80.16%
Published TouchRate 83.96%
90 min 3,318 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.16%
Published TouchRate 74.85%
Qualified Hit 77.06%
Published TouchRate 85.57%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790918567544-170736
2026-10-02 07:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,329.5200 → 86,329.5800 67.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:25:00
@ 86,329.5800
1790918387114-170196
2026-10-02 07:19:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,358.6100 → 86,358.6500 67.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:25:00
@ 86,358.6500
1790918207736-169661
2026-10-02 07:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,541.5900 → 86,541.6400 91.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:16:00
@ 86,541.5900
1790918027943-169108
2026-10-02 07:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,578.6400 → 86,578.6900 92.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:13:00
@ 86,578.6400
1790917849448-168565
2026-10-02 07:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,584.7000 → 86,584.7500 94.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:10:00
@ 86,584.7000
1790917668391-168021
2026-10-02 07:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,598.0700 → 86,598.1200 84.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:08:00
@ 86,598.0700
1790917488288-167481
2026-10-02 07:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,533.2900 → 86,533.3300 50.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:04:00
@ 86,533.3100
1790917308107-166943
2026-10-02 07:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,514.5100 → 86,514.5700 67.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:05:00
@ 86,514.5700
1790917128128-166347
2026-10-02 06:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,532.2500 → 86,532.3000 81.00% touched 2026-10-02 07:04:00
@ 86,532.3000
1790916948057-165796
2026-10-02 06:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,699.3100 → 86,699.3600 86.00% not touched —
1790916768408-165276
2026-10-02 06:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,754.3000 → 86,754.3500 67.00% not touched —
1790916587541-164716
2026-10-02 06:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,792.2300 → 86,792.2900 66.00% not touched —
1790916407772-164189
2026-10-02 06:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,584.3800 → 86,584.4200 65.00% touched 2026-10-02 06:48:00
@ 86,584.3800
1790916407772-164189
2026-10-02 06:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,621.3500 → 86,621.4500 74.00% touched 2026-10-02 06:48:00
@ 86,621.3500
1790916228412-163625
2026-10-02 06:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,605.4200 → 86,605.4600 64.00% touched 2026-10-02 06:48:00
@ 86,605.4200
1790916228412-163625
2026-10-02 06:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,642.3900 → 86,642.4900 73.00% touched 2026-10-02 06:48:00
@ 86,642.3900
1790916048756-163074
2026-10-02 06:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,621.2100 → 86,626.0100 62.00% touched 2026-10-02 06:48:00
@ 86,621.2100
1790916048756-163074
2026-10-02 06:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,660.5600 → 86,660.6600 72.00% touched 2026-10-02 06:49:00
@ 86,660.5600

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 37 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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