Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 14:35 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790940348520-238953

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790940348520-238953
Published 2026-10-02 13:25:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,415.0000
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
76.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-02 13:25:00
Market price 86,454.4100.
Actual Market Range
86,289.2200 → 87,249.0500
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790940348520-238953.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,454.4100 → 86,454.4600 77.00% 2026-10-02 13:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 13:55:35 		touched 2026-10-02 13:25:00
@ 86,454.4100
60 min 86,554.0100 → 86,554.1100 56.00% 2026-10-02 13:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 14:25:35 		touched 2026-10-02 13:52:00
@ 86,554.0100
90 min 86,429.2100 → 86,429.3400 96.00% 2026-10-02 13:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 14:55:35 		touched 2026-10-02 13:25:00
@ 86,429.2100
Historical context at publication time 70.67% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,736 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.07% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 13:25:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
70.88%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 10,010 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
79.29%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
10,010
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.76% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 7 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 08:38:00 → 2026-10-02 14:38:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,337 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.81%
Published TouchRate 60.29%
Qualified Hit 84.76%
Published TouchRate 83.18%
60 min 3,337 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.11%
Published TouchRate 70.71%
Qualified Hit 79.34%
Published TouchRate 84.05%
90 min 3,336 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.71%
Published TouchRate 75.28%
Qualified Hit 76.11%
Published TouchRate 85.62%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790944310156-251825
2026-10-02 14:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 87,195.7200 → 87,210.0600 41.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:31:00
@ 87,195.7200
1790944310156-251825
2026-10-02 14:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 87,239.8400 → 87,239.9400 53.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:31:00
@ 87,239.8400
1790944128301-251299
2026-10-02 14:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,641.6700 → 86,641.7300 53.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:29:00
@ 86,641.6700
1790944128301-251299
2026-10-02 14:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,639.7100 → 86,639.8100 73.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:29:00
@ 86,639.7100
1790944128301-251299
2026-10-02 14:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,688.3700 → 86,688.4900 66.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,688.3700
1790943948214-250742
2026-10-02 14:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,671.4800 → 86,671.5300 61.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,671.4800
1790943948214-250742
2026-10-02 14:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,693.4700 → 86,693.5700 71.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,693.4700
1790943948214-250742
2026-10-02 14:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,707.0700 → 86,707.2000 73.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,707.0700
1790943769337-249570
2026-10-02 14:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,679.7800 → 86,679.8300 75.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,679.7800
1790943769337-249570
2026-10-02 14:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,720.3500 → 86,720.4500 73.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,720.3500
1790943769337-249570
2026-10-02 14:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,790.6500 → 86,790.7800 60.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,790.6500
1790943589304-248955
2026-10-02 14:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,625.8900 → 86,625.9400 65.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:22:00
@ 86,625.8900
1790943589304-248955
2026-10-02 14:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,627.8500 → 86,627.9500 79.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:22:00
@ 86,627.8500
1790943589304-248955
2026-10-02 14:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,687.8200 → 86,687.9400 67.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:30:00
@ 86,687.8200
1790943408422-248398
2026-10-02 14:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,475.5300 → 86,475.5800 92.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:16:00
@ 86,475.5800
1790943408422-248398
2026-10-02 14:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,492.7500 → 86,492.8400 98.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:16:00
@ 86,492.7500
1790943408422-248398
2026-10-02 14:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,537.8200 → 86,537.9500 86.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:17:00
@ 86,537.8200
1790943048817-247152
2026-10-02 14:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,448.6600 → 86,448.7100 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 14:10:00
@ 86,448.7100

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 37 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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