Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:20 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1791928190939-840821

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1791928190939-840821
Published 2026-10-13 23:49:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 83,458.5100
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
52.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
No verified touch was recorded.
Actual Market Range
83,116.7000 → 83,478.8400
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1791928190939-840821.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 83,550.9000 → 83,552.3200 31.00% 2026-10-13 23:49:36
→ 2026-10-14 00:19:36 		not touched —
60 min 83,538.1700 → 83,538.2700 65.00% 2026-10-13 23:49:36
→ 2026-10-14 00:49:36 		not touched —
90 min 83,587.6800 → 83,587.8100 62.00% 2026-10-13 23:49:36
→ 2026-10-14 01:19:36 		not touched —
Historical context at publication time 71.28% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 70,164 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.66% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-13 23:49:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.22%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 10,056 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.50%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
10,056
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.84% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 15 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-14 19:18:00 → 2026-10-15 01:18:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,356 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.83%
Published TouchRate 59.26%
Qualified Hit 85.49%
Published TouchRate 82.99%
60 min 3,350 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.22%
Published TouchRate 69.60%
Qualified Hit 82.25%
Published TouchRate 83.63%
90 min 3,350 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.60%
Published TouchRate 74.68%
Qualified Hit 81.05%
Published TouchRate 84.93%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792019628190-1253716
2026-10-15 01:13:34 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,582.4100 → 81,582.4600 40.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:14:00
@ 81,582.4100
1792019449868-1252911
2026-10-15 01:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,508.8000 → 81,508.8500 76.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:11:00
@ 81,508.8000
1792019449868-1252911
2026-10-15 01:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,455.5000 → 81,455.6000 91.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:17:00
@ 81,455.6000
1792019269085-1252112
2026-10-15 01:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,531.2600 → 81,531.3200 69.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,531.2600
1792019269085-1252112
2026-10-15 01:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,438.1900 → 81,438.2900 78.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:09:00
@ 81,438.2900
1792019089391-1251304
2026-10-15 01:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,591.7400 → 81,591.7900 86.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:14:00
@ 81,591.7400
1792019089391-1251304
2026-10-15 01:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,517.8600 → 81,517.9600 77.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,517.9600
1792019089391-1251304
2026-10-15 01:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,459.7600 → 81,459.8800 63.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:08:00
@ 81,459.8800
1792018908681-1250493
2026-10-15 01:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,552.8200 → 81,552.8700 92.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:01:00
@ 81,552.8200
1792018908681-1250493
2026-10-15 01:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,495.1700 → 81,495.2600 81.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,495.2600
1792018728271-1249649
2026-10-15 00:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,583.4300 → 81,583.4800 79.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:00:00
@ 81,583.4300
1792018728271-1249649
2026-10-15 00:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,494.2400 → 81,494.3400 76.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,494.3400
1792018728271-1249649
2026-10-15 00:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,482.8900 → 81,483.0200 76.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,483.0200
1792018549436-1248843
2026-10-15 00:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,582.9200 → 81,582.9600 77.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:00:00
@ 81,582.9200
1792018549436-1248843
2026-10-15 00:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,486.3600 → 81,486.4500 74.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,486.4500
1792018549436-1248843
2026-10-15 00:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 81,477.6800 → 81,477.8100 76.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,477.8100
1792018368541-1248054
2026-10-15 00:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,599.8600 → 81,599.9100 79.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:00:00
@ 81,599.8600
1792018368541-1248054
2026-10-15 00:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,486.2600 → 81,486.3500 68.00% touched 2026-10-15 01:07:00
@ 81,486.3500

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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