Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 14 Oct 2026, 21:01 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792003248995-1180095

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792003248995-1180095
Published 2026-10-14 20:40:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,540.9300
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
85.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-14 20:41:00
Market price 81,465.4500.
Actual Market Range
81,444.4900 → 81,690.8800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792003248995-1180095.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,560.6400 → 81,560.6900 93.00% 2026-10-14 20:40:35
→ 2026-10-14 21:10:35 		touched 2026-10-14 20:47:00
@ 81,560.6400
60 min 81,465.3500 → 81,465.4500 85.00% 2026-10-14 20:40:35
→ 2026-10-14 21:40:35 		touched 2026-10-14 20:41:00
@ 81,465.4500
90 min 81,355.5000 → 81,355.6300 77.00% 2026-10-14 20:40:35
→ 2026-10-14 22:10:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 71.32% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 71,389 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.67% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-14 20:40:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.29%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 10,029 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.84%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
10,029
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 67.84% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 39 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-14 15:00:00 → 2026-10-14 21:00:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,354 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.75%
Published TouchRate 59.41%
Qualified Hit 85.88%
Published TouchRate 83.04%
60 min 3,340 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.38%
Published TouchRate 69.50%
Qualified Hit 82.55%
Published TouchRate 83.66%
90 min 3,335 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.75%
Published TouchRate 74.64%
Qualified Hit 81.38%
Published TouchRate 84.96%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792003789845-1182516
2026-10-14 20:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,614.9600 → 81,615.0100 78.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:50:00
@ 81,614.9600
1792003609274-1181712
2026-10-14 20:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,526.1900 → 81,526.2400 98.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:46:00
@ 81,526.2400
1792003429413-1180926
2026-10-14 20:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,481.3200 → 81,481.3700 91.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:43:00
@ 81,481.3700
1792003248995-1180095
2026-10-14 20:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,560.6400 → 81,560.6900 93.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:47:00
@ 81,560.6400
1792003248995-1180095
2026-10-14 20:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,465.3500 → 81,465.4500 85.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:41:00
@ 81,465.4500
1792003068536-1179294
2026-10-14 20:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,591.3100 → 81,594.7300 94.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:37:00
@ 81,591.3100
1792003068536-1179294
2026-10-14 20:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,501.2400 → 81,501.3400 85.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:41:00
@ 81,501.3400
1792002889067-1178479
2026-10-14 20:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,598.2300 → 81,598.2700 88.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:35:00
@ 81,598.2300
1792002889067-1178479
2026-10-14 20:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 81,483.1800 → 81,483.2700 84.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:41:00
@ 81,483.2700
1792002709226-1177675
2026-10-14 20:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,580.0300 → 81,580.0800 83.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:35:00
@ 81,580.0300
1792002528973-1176867
2026-10-14 20:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,542.6800 → 81,542.7300 98.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:28:00
@ 81,542.6800
1792002349245-1176065
2026-10-14 20:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,478.0400 → 81,478.0900 89.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:25:00
@ 81,478.0900
1792002170179-1175273
2026-10-14 20:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,602.1400 → 81,602.1900 86.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:35:00
@ 81,602.1400
1792001989589-1174449
2026-10-14 20:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,392.8600 → 81,394.8600 73.00% not touched —
1792001809783-1173661
2026-10-14 20:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,473.3700 → 81,473.4200 81.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:19:00
@ 81,473.4200
1792001630355-1172840
2026-10-14 20:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,458.2200 → 81,458.2700 72.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:19:00
@ 81,458.2700
1792001450127-1172053
2026-10-14 20:10:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,378.8500 → 81,378.9000 70.00% not touched —
1792001270317-1171229
2026-10-14 20:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,457.5400 → 81,457.5900 72.00% touched 2026-10-14 20:10:00
@ 81,457.5900

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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