Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 15 Oct 2026, 21:00 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792089289895-1575515

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792089289895-1575515
Published 2026-10-15 20:34:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 82,166.3700
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
94.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-15 20:37:00
Market price 82,149.2200.
Actual Market Range
82,117.0400 → 82,330.1800
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792089289895-1575515.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 82,149.1700 → 82,149.2200 95.00% 2026-10-15 20:34:35
→ 2026-10-15 21:04:35 		touched 2026-10-15 20:37:00
@ 82,149.2200
60 min 82,107.5500 → 82,107.6500 93.00% 2026-10-15 20:34:35
→ 2026-10-15 21:34:35 		pending —
90 min 82,248.5500 → 82,248.6800 94.00% 2026-10-15 20:34:35
→ 2026-10-15 22:04:35 		touched 2026-10-15 20:45:00
@ 82,248.5500
Historical context at publication time 71.34% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 72,831 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.73% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-15 20:34:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
71.80%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 10,036 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.27%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
10,036
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.34% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 38 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-15 15:00:00 → 2026-10-15 21:00:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,350 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.93%
Published TouchRate 60.22%
Qualified Hit 84.39%
Published TouchRate 83.12%
60 min 3,340 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.81%
Published TouchRate 69.96%
Qualified Hit 80.44%
Published TouchRate 83.61%
90 min 3,346 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.67%
Published TouchRate 74.84%
Qualified Hit 80.20%
Published TouchRate 85.26%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792089830459-1577930
2026-10-15 20:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,243.0900 → 82,243.1400 85.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:45:00
@ 82,243.0900
1792089830459-1577930
2026-10-15 20:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,202.8100 → 82,202.9400 99.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:43:00
@ 82,202.8100
1792089649586-1577138
2026-10-15 20:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,124.0500 → 82,124.1700 50.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:40:00
@ 82,124.1100
1792089470018-1576314
2026-10-15 20:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,131.3800 → 82,131.4300 89.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:40:00
@ 82,131.4300
1792089470018-1576314
2026-10-15 20:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,238.2300 → 82,238.3600 95.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:44:00
@ 82,238.2300
1792089289895-1575515
2026-10-15 20:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 82,149.1700 → 82,149.2200 95.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:37:00
@ 82,149.2200
1792089289895-1575515
2026-10-15 20:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,248.5500 → 82,248.6800 94.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:45:00
@ 82,248.5500
1792089109619-1574692
2026-10-15 20:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,167.2300 → 82,167.3600 97.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:33:00
@ 82,167.2300
1792088929834-1573885
2026-10-15 20:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,107.1100 → 82,107.2400 99.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:28:00
@ 82,107.1100
1792088749234-1573100
2026-10-15 20:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,890.0100 → 81,890.0500 71.00% not touched —
1792088749234-1573100
2026-10-15 20:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,017.1700 → 82,017.3000 99.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:26:00
@ 82,017.1700
1792088570356-1572281
2026-10-15 20:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,904.2000 → 81,904.2600 71.00% not touched —
1792088570356-1572281
2026-10-15 20:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,002.4700 → 82,002.6000 99.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:23:00
@ 82,002.6000
1792088389272-1571494
2026-10-15 20:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,925.7000 → 81,925.7400 71.00% not touched —
1792088389272-1571494
2026-10-15 20:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,001.4200 → 82,001.5400 98.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:21:00
@ 82,001.5400
1792088210627-1570667
2026-10-15 20:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,945.0400 → 81,945.0800 71.00% not touched —
1792088210627-1570667
2026-10-15 20:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 82,022.6300 → 82,022.7600 98.00% touched 2026-10-15 20:19:00
@ 82,022.7600
1792088030288-1569875
2026-10-15 20:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 81,984.4500 → 81,984.4900 71.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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